Australian Dollar Crosses Attempting to Break Higher
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Commentary – For months, we have been focusing on the long term 5 wave rally from .8165-.9514 which was followed by a 3 wave decline to .8375. The AUDCAD may finally be breaking higher now. The bullish count treats the choppy rally from .8271 as a series of 1s and 2s. A break above .8986 confirms that wave 3 higher is underway and risk would be the December low at .8536. The initial bullish target is above .9514.
Strategy – Flat
Commentary – Wave 3 lower within a 5 wave bear cycle from 107.84 is most likely underway now. The bearish bias is strong as long as price is below 100.15. Within wave 3, a small wave i is complete at 94.36 and wave ii is underway now. A potential terminus for the corrective advance from 94.36 is 97.94 (61.8% of 100.15-94.36). Look for a top and reversal near there. The initial bearish target is not until close to 85.00.
Strategy – Get bearish near 97.94, against 100.15, target is close to 85.00
Commentary – We maintain that wave 3 (or C) higher is underway. The minimum objective is just above 1.2100 but bullish potential is far greater. The pair did break through the 200 day SMA yesterday, which gave us hope that the explosion higher was underway. However, the AUDNZD has had a nasty setback from near 1.1500. Still, given the bullish potential, a bullish bias is warranted as long as price is above 1.1149 (preferably 1.1243).
Strategy – Bullish, against 1.1149, target much higher (above 1.2100)