|Index ||Strat ||Risk ||Target |
|Oil ||FLAT || || |
|Gold ||SHORT ||1010 ||600 |
|Silver ||SHORT ||14.60 || < 8 |
Short-Term Technical Forecast for Crude Oil
Crude oil prices have thundered through triangle support, opening up a move towards key Fibonacci support and perhaps further declines. Next price floors are former spike-lows and the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of the 39.40-54.00 move at 45.00. Given extremely oversold conditions, there is a distinct possibility that prices will see a short-term retracement. Yet momentum remains to the downside, and a break of 45.00 would only confirm that fact. Resistance is former support at 47.00.
Long-Term Technical Forecast for Gold
"The decline from 1008 is an impulse (5 waves), indicating that the larger trend has turned down. Since 1008, gold has declined in 5 waves and advanced in 3 waves at multiple degrees of trend. Price ideally remains below 968 (wave 2 high)." Already below the 55 day SMA, price is now testing the 200 day SMA. Gold ideally remains below 902 on its way to a short term bearish target at 808 (Fibonacci extension). Ultimately though, I expect weakness to extend below 692.
Short-Term Technical Forecast for Gold
Gold prices have thundered through support and now seem likely to test significant lows near the 865.00 mark. The COMEX contract had been stuck in a progressively narrower trading range, but today's decline clearly went below the range low. Next targets now include 3-month lows of 865.00. A break of said level would likely go on to test the bottom of the contract's multi-month trend channel at approximately 850.00. Near-term resistance is former support at 890.00.
Long-Term Technical Forecast for Silver
The pattern in silver is clear. The drop from the March 2008 high to the October 2008 low was in 5 waves, indicating that any subsequent rally should prove corrective. The rally was corrective; the count shown is an A-B-C advance with wave A as a leading diagonal. Waves A and C are close to equal, which is common in a correction. The next bear leg in silver is most likely underway.
Short-Term Technical Forecast for Silver
The COMEX Silver contract finds itself in much the same position as gold, as silver prices have broken key trend lows. Subsequent price targets become previous spike-lows near the 12.000 mark, and a break lower would signal a move towards 11.50 is likely.