Euro Takes a Beating as NFPs Trigger EURUSD Breakdown
The euro was one of the weakest major currencies on Friday, but it has little to do with European data. Instead, the release of US non-farm payrolls triggered a surge in the US dollar, which led EURUSD to break out of a tight range and down roughly 200 points. Next week, the euro will face very high event risk from the release of Q2 GDP. In 2008, the release of Euro-zone CPI drew significant attention and sparked major volatility for the euro. However, indicators of growth have become more important, as the European Central Bank has shifted its focus away from inflation and on to the global and regional economic slowdown. The advanced reading of Q2 GDP is forecasted to contract for the fifth straight quarter, this time at a rate of -0.5 percent, compared to -2.5 percent in Q1, while the year-over-year rate could fall by a record 5.1 percent. Such data would back up the ECB’s recent claims that the pace of contraction is “clearly slowing,” and if GDP falls less than anticipated, the euro could rally. On the other hand, a worse-than-expected decline in Q2 GDP could weigh on the currency.