GBPAUD: Evidence Supports Formation of a Major Low
The GBPAUD is nearly 10,000 pips off its post 2000 high but both long and short term charts indicate that the GBPAUD may be forming a significant low now.
Since the 1970s, the GBPAUD has slowly trended upward. During this time, the pair has formed significant lows on 2 occasions; in January 1985 and May 1996. Evidence on shorter term charts suggests that another significant low may be forming now. Markets often exhibit cyclic activity. If a major low is forming now, then the time between major lows would be close to equal.
One reason to suspect that a significant low is in place is the break (just yesterday) of a trendline that had held since August 2007. The combination of a trendline break and the 2.00 figure as a support level indicate strong potential for a major reversal.
Finally, the hourly chart provides additional evidence that the pair may be forming a long standing bottom. 5 waves up are visible from the 2.0295 low. 5 waves move in the direction of the larger trend, therefore the larger trend has turned up at least momentarily. Look for a corrective decline to end near 2.05/06 before the next leg of the advance begins.