IMF: Middle East to supply 34 percent of world’s oil demand by 2020
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA)’s oil output is expected to increase by 31 million barrels of oil per day (bpd) by 2020, some 34 percent of world oil supply, revealed a recently published International Monetary Fund report.
The MENA region accounted for about 31 percent of total world production in 2001, and about 50 percent of exports. On the assumption that demand grows by an average of one percent a year, the report projects world demand at 83 million bpd by 2010 and 91 million bpd by 2020. Of this, the call on Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) crude oil would reach about 27 million bpd and 36 million bpd in 2010 and 2020, respectively. This projection is based on the assumption that the OPEC market share for crude oil would rise to about 35 percent by 2010 and to 40 percent by 2020 from the current level of 33 percent.
According to the report, this growing market share for OPEC is premised on the fact that non-OPEC reserves are declining, though expected to still be quite resilient up to 2010, given the reality that they have largely produced at full capacity from their limited reserves over the past several decades.
Within OPEC, Middle East and North African members own about 88 percent of the reserves and currently produce about 77 percent of the group’s output. Given that some of the non-regional OPEC countries are producing at close to full capacity, it is evident that the MENA members would increase their share of the group’s output. Even if the oil price were to remain at $18–21 a barrel in real terms, which according to the IMF study, many analysts consider the long-term price, substantial financial inflows into the region in the coming years should be ensured.
OPEC's eleven members, including Iraq, pumped an average 26.6-million barrels per day (bpd) in July, up 370,000 bpd from June's 26.23 million bpd, a Platts survey of OPEC and oil industry officials showed. The biggest single output increase of 220,000 bpd came from Iraq, whose production rose to 680,000 bpd in July from 460,000 bpd in June. — (menareport.com)
© 2003 Mena Report (www.menareport.com)