IEA oil forecast revision down, but OPEC countries need not worry
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised upwards its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2014 to a modest 1.5 per cent on the back of a more robust outlook for global economic growth, a report said.
The IEA now sees demand rising by 1.4 mbpd (or 1.5 per cent) this year to approximately 92.7 mbpd, from 1.3 mbpd (1.4 per cent) last month, said the latest NBK Economic Update.
This represents a modest acceleration on last year, as global oil demand is estimated to have grown by 1.3 mbpd in 2013. All demand growth is projected to come from emerging economies, with non-OECD Asia accounting for almost half of the global increase.
Meanwhile, total Opec production (including Iraq) increased to above 31 mbpd for the first time in five months on the back of surging Iraqi output.
Production in Iraq was boosted by a whopping 0.6 mbpd in February, lifting output to a modern-day high of 3.4 mbpd, thanks largely to the expansion of offshore export capacity.
Previously, major bottlenecks at Iraq’s southern export terminals had limited the flow of Iraqi crude exports, said the NBK report.
Moreover, the potential start-up of production from several major fields this year, including the West Qurna-2 field, which is expected to add an extra 120 kbpd initially to total production, should provide a sizeable boost to Iraq’s oil output in 2014.
Non-Opec oil supplies are projected to increase by a significant 1.9 mbpd in 2014, following an estimated 1.4 mbpd last year. Around 200 kbpd is expected to come from Opec natural gas liquids (not subject to quotas).
This should come mainly from large increases in production from the US and Canada, which are expected to rise by a combined 1.2 mbpd in 2014, according to the NBK report.