|Index ||Strat ||Risk ||Target |
|Oil ||FLAT || || |
|Gold ||SHORT ||1010 ||600 |
|Silver ||SHORT ||14.60 || < 8 |
Long-Term Technical Forecast for Crude Oil
The choppy decline from below 57 (January high) may be wave b of B. As such, wave c is underway and should exceed 57. A target area is 64-74. If this plays out, then there will be an opportunity to ride wave C down to much lower levels (perhaps as low as $10).
Short-Term Technical Forecast for Crude Oil
Crude oil prices have been fairly motionless through recent trade, but the NYMEX contract threatens to break lower if it is unable to hold a medium-term rising trendline. The 49.50 mark represents the approximate level of support offered by the multi-month trend, and the contract has thus far managed to stay above. Yet a break opens up a move towards firm price floors at 47.50 and 45.00. Medium-term momentum remains to the topside, but it seems that crude oil could potentially see further pullbacks through near term trade.
Long-Term Technical Forecast for Gold
The decline from 1008 is an impulse (5 waves), indicating that the larger trend has turned down. Since 1008, gold has declined in 5 waves and advanced in 3 waves at multiple degrees of trend. Price ideally remains below 968 (wave 2 high
Short-Term Technical Forecast for Gold
Gold prices remain in a fairly tight short-term range, and subsequent forecasts are somewhat unclear. The COMEX Gold contract recently failed to break above the 50.0 percent Fibonacci retracement of the 935-865 move at 900. The resistance level likewise coincides with a recent spike-high, and Gold bulls may have a difficult time breaking above it. To the downside, a multi-week trendline lends support near the 890 mark. Until we see a break in either direction, short-term outlook will remain unclear.
Long-Term Technical Forecast for Silver
The pattern in silver is clear. The drop from the March 2008 high to the October 2008 low was in 5 waves, indicating that any subsequent rally should prove corrective. The rally was corrective; the count shown is an A-B-C advance with wave A as a leading diagonal. Waves A and C are close to equal, which is common in a correction. The next bear leg in silver is most likely underway.
Short-Term Technical Forecast for Silver
The COMEX Silver contract finds itself in much the same position as gold, as silver prices have broken key trend lows. Subsequent price targets become previous spike-lows near the 12.000 mark, and a break lower would signal a move towards 11.50 is likely.