Tomorrow's Economic Releases: US Manufacturing Among Plenty Of Euro Data
1. Swiss Consumer Price Index
2. Swiss Gross Domestic Product
3. Euro zone Gross Domestic Product
4. US ISM Manufacturing Survey
Swiss Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAY) (5:45 GMT, 1:45 EST)
Outlook: With oil prices still rising and placing inflationary pressure on the global economies, consumer prices in Switzerland are again expected to have risen during May by 1.3 percent from the same month in 2005. Subsequently, as companies raise prices to pass on costs, consumers are seeing their budgets being pressed by higher energy costs in the month. However, inflationary pressures are expected to be supported as wage earnings increases look to fuel price jumps and foster further preemptive measures by SNB President Roth. Remaining steadfast against rising inflation, Roth cannot ignore the pace at which the economy is growing, underpinning the current rise in consumer prices. Should the trend continue, speculation increases on the probability of seeing a 2 percent rate by yearend.
Previous: Consumer prices in Switzerland rose 0.2 percent more than expected during April at 1.1 percent. The jump came as retailers, especially in the clothing sector, ended winter sales and oil prices rose persistently, threatening to raise the overall price level. Swiss companies have so far had success passing on the higher costs to their customers, furthering the indirect price effects of the high price of oil, due to strong consumer spending spurred by the fall in unemployment. The Swiss National Bank is worried about the inflationary pressure however and has taken this rise into account as it looks to move away from its low target rate of 1.25 percent with some traders pricing in three more rate hikes this year.
Swiss Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (1Q) (5:45 GMT, 1:45 EST)
Outlook: The gross domestic product of Switzerland is expected to have grown 2.9 percent during the first quarter of this year from first quarter 2005. Strengthening global economies have continued to boost the demand for exports allowing Swiss companies to expand and hire. Subsequently, unemployment has fallen during every month of the first quarter. The figures show strong economic improvement in the country, putting increasing amounts of income in the hands of the consumer, which should have fueled spending during the first months of the year. All in all, this has increased manufacturing levels and kept exports strengthened on foreign front. Now sporting a surplus equal to almost 11 percent of gross domestic product, overall production may weigh heavily as central bankers continue to remain wary of potential consumer price increases.
Previous: The Swiss economy grew at a pace of 2.7 percent on a year on year basis during the fourth quarter of 2005. Switzerlands economic recovery is fueled by strong global growth and the resulting demand for exports by global counterparts. Swiss companies began expanding to meet production needs, increasing output and investing in new equipment and factories. This has fueled economic wide increases in consumption and spending as wage increases on a tighter labor market fuel domestic output. The strong reading coincides with positive manufacturing figures, consumption and leading indicators reports seen in recent months.
Euro-zone Gross Domestic Product (s.a.) (YoY) (1Q P) (9:00 GMT, 5:00 EST)
Outlook: Gross domestic product estimates look to be revised higher as expectations mount of an increase to 2 percent on an annualized comparison for the first quarter. Higher than the previous 1.8 percent seen in the prior report, exports continue to add to the overall economy as global growth sees no near term bump. Germany, the regions largest economy, continues to export at lofty levels, remaining positive since turning negative this time last year. Notably, the survey jumped by 15 percent higher on the annual figure as global growth and demand remain high. Positive signs in consumer retail figures are looking to creep even as unemployment continues to remain at higher levels. All in all the overall expansion should signal to central bankers that inflationary pressures are around the bend as it coincides with inflationary pressures.
Previous: The economy of the Euro-zone grew 1.8 percent in the fourth quarter of last year from a year earlier. The large economies of Italy and Germany both reported stagnant growth during the fourth quarter, stalling the growth figure of the entire Euro-zone. Despite the somewhat low growth figure for the fourth quarter, the European Central Bank raised rates for the first time in five years in December. Although the smaller developing countries with high inflation and overheating housing markets could benefit from the hike, it sparked concern that larger countries, specifically Germany, will have trouble coming out of the current economic lull.
US ISM Manufacturing Index (MAY) (14:00 GMT, 10:00 EST)
Outlook: The ISM manufacturing index is expected to drop to a reading of 55.7 for May after an unexpected jump in the month previous. Despite the predicted fall, the release should still print above 50 signaling a continuing expansion in the sector. Consumer sentiment and spending have fallen during May under pressure from a weakening housing market and high energy prices. Comparatively, strong consumer spending has fueled the manufacturing sector in previous months to accelerate its expansion. A drop should not deter a June FOMC decision to raise interest rates especially as the ISM prices paid index is expected to rise again to 74.3 as inflationary concerns continue.
Previous: Growth in the manufacturing sector unexpectedly accelerated during April with the ISM manufacturing index rising from 55.2 to 57.3, instead of falling to 55 as was predicted. With the quickening and recovery of global economic growth, especially in Europe and Japan, and continuing strong domestic consumer spending, manufacturers augmented production and invested in new equipment to meet growing demand. Along with the expansion in manufacturing, the price index part of the ISM survey jumped far more than expected to 71.5 from 66.5. Rising oil prices and inflationary pressures have driven up prices for manufacturers with only some having been able to pass on the extra costs.
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