Slow growth, rising unemployment push for change in eurozone policy -- Qatar
Peak growth and rising unemployment in the eurozone is prompting a change in policy direction away from budget austerity, QNB has said in a report.
The eurozone economy has now been in recession for the last six quarters, contracting by 1.5% in real terms over this period.
The contracting economy is providing fewer opportunities for job creation and pushing up unemployment, which reached 12.1% of the labour force in March 2013.
Amongst under-25, joblessness is even higher at 24%. Both measures of unemployment are now the highest on record. A primary policy response to the 2008 financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis (which reached peak intensity in summer 2012) was to implement budget austerity measures across the eurozone.
This involved a sharp drop in public expenditure growth, which fell from an annual average of 4.5% in 2007-09 to 1.2% in 2010-12.
This meant that only €170bn was added to eurozone budgets in 2010-12 compared with €570bn in 2007-09, an overall slowdown of €400bn.
The main areas targeted by governments to slow expenditure growth have been social benefits, public sector jobs and wages, and capital investment. Cutting government jobs and investment have a direct impact on growth and unemployment.
Meanwhile, reducing social benefits at a time of hardship is leading to widespread dissatisfaction and protests.
The high levels of sovereign debt in Europe have discouraged the counter-cyclical spending that government usually uses to re-balance their economies during recessions.
Debt interest and capital repayments, which are not supportive of growth, were the only areas with higher growth in 2010-12 than in 2007-09.
Therefore, eurozone countries policy response has done little to tackle the unprecedented level of unemployment and weak growth, according to QNB Group.
Officials increasingly appear to be considering a policy reversal. The target dates for reducing budget deficits below certain thresholds have already been pushed back in France, Spain and the Netherlands.
Budget deficits have fallen from 6.4% of GDP in 2009 to 3.7% in 2012. Government debt in the eurozone has now risen from 80% of GDP in 2009 to 91% in 2012.
Although debt levels are rising, there may still be room for manoeuvre. Increased debt-funded spending in growth-supportive areas, such as investment or intermediate consumption could potentially increase revenue and trigger further investment, helping to reduce debt in the longer term.
Heavily-indebted countries have, in the past, increased spending and exhibited strong growth as a means to repaying debt.
The US and the UK in the 1950s both had debt in excess of 100% but high spending drove strong growth and enabled them to reduce debt to sustainable levels.
Reduced austerity in some of the larger countries could also help tackle unemployment across the region, especially if coupled with reforms to increase labour force mobility around the EU.
However, the overall debt levels in the eurozone cloud a more nuanced picture among individual countries as both unemployment and debt vary considerably.
Unemployment in non-core Eurozone countries (Italy, Spain, Greece, Ireland, Portugal Cyprus, Estonia, Slovakia and Slovenia) is 17.7% while unemployment in core countries (Germany, France, Austria, Belgium, Finland, Luxembourg, Malta and Netherlands) is 7.6%. Greece, Italy, Portugal and Ireland, each have debt levels of around 120% of GDP or greater, leaving them with little room to ease back on austerity.
Greece is in the worst position with unemployment at 27% and 66% for under-25 while debt is 157% of GDP (although it is falling).
Conversely, Spain, the other country with particularly chronic unemployment (27% and 56% among under-25), may have room to borrow more to provide additional government support to the economy.
In addition to more growth focused policies, QNB Group argues that structural labour market reforms are still required.
Investment in programmes to get people back to work, adjustments in labour costs and greater labour market flexibility should all help. These policies are most needed in countries with high unemployment, such as Greece and Spain.
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- NBK Weekly Money Markets Report 26-9-2010
- NBK Weekly Money Markets Report dated 07-02-2010