Would legal ADSL service in Lebanon finally stamp out the ISP black market?
The long awaited ADSL service in Lebanon is to be launched in 2006. The Arab Advisors Group expects an immediate healthy uptake of the ADSL service, which will contribute towards enhancing the position of the regulated legal ISPs.
As expected from a country with a high educational level and a relatively open society, Lebanon has one of the highest Internet penetration rates in the Arab World. The operations of the 6 main ISPs, in addition to the black market Internet providers contributed to the growth in Internet subscribers at a CAGR of 18.2% over the period 2000-2004. By end of 2004 the total Internet subscribers stood at around 195,000 (a penetration rate of 5.3%), of which some 70,000 were subscribers of black market ISPs.
A new report, “Lebanon Internet and Datacomm Landscape Report” was released to the Arab Advisors Group’s Telecoms Strategic Research Service subscribers on August 21, 2005. The 43-pages report, which has 30 detailed exhibits, provides a detailed analysis of the Lebanese Internet, Data and content markets and profiles all the major data operators and ISPs in the country. Please contact the Arab Advisors Group to get a copy of the reports Table of Contents.
”Between 2005 and 2009, we project Lebanon’s Internet market to grow by a CAGR of 14.8% to reach 400,000 accounts in 2009 (a penetration rate of 10.1%). The number of Internet users is expected to reach the 1 million users milestone in 2009 (a user penetration rate of 25.2%) compared to around 656,000 in 2004 (a user penetration rate of 17.5%).” Mr. Andrawes Snobar, Arab Advisors Senior Research Analyst wrote in the report.
“The ADSL saga is still ongoing in Lebanon. Ogero had planned to introduce the ADSL service as early as end of 2002. This was highly expected specially with the completion of the advanced Ethernet network, which allows Ogero to introduce more advanced communication services such as xDSL and VLANs at much more scalable levels. Still, by mid 2005, Lebanon is yet to have an operational ADSL service. If the service was introduced as expected within the year 2006, the Arab Advisors Group expects it to make up an initial 2.5% of the total Internet accounts in 2006. This percentage will increase fast due to the late introduction of the ADSL service as pent-up demand is met.” Mr. Snobar added.