A higher time frame chart and nine years of historical data puts the EURUSD's position into perspective. After two days of massive declines (Tuesday's selloff was the greatest in the history of the euro), the pair now stands just above 1.40. While this even level itself has some psychological significance, the real interest is in a rising trendline and Fibonacci retracement. Pulling a rising trendline from the January 2002 lows and connecting the lows from November 2005, February 2006 and September 11th of this year, we now have a rising floor around 1.3920. However, even if this level is tested, we still have the 50 percent retracement of the November 15, 2005 to July 15,2008 advance at 1.3840. This is a make or break level for the pair's long-term trend, so major event risk and injections of volatlity should be watched closely.