Expanding prosperity for a growing world population will drive an increase in energy demand of about 35 percent by 2030 compared to 2005, even with significant efficiency gains, and natural gas will emerge as the second-largest energy source behind oil, Exxon Mobil Corporation said today as it released its new edition of Outlook for Energy: A View to 2030.
The growing use of natural gas and other less-carbon intensive energy supplies, combined with greater energy efficiency in nations around the world, will help mitigate environmental impacts of increased energy demand. According to the Outlook, global energy-related carbon dioxide emissions growth will be lower than the projected average rate of growth in energy demand.
“Our energy outlook clearly points to a growing demand for energy globally which reflects improving living standards for millions of people around the world. ExxonMobil will continue to invest in technology and innovation to develop new economic energy supplies to help meet this demand while looking for ways to reduce environmental impacts,” said Rex W. Tillerson, chairman and chief executive officer.
“The forecasts also show a shift toward natural gas as businesses and governments look for reliable, affordable and cleaner ways to meet energy needs,” Tillerson said. “Newly unlocked supplies of shale gas and other unconventional energy sources will be vital in meeting this demand.”
The Outlook for Energy is developed annually to help guide ExxonMobil’s global investment decisions. The company shares the findings publicly to increase understanding of the world’s energy needs and challenges. The outlook is the result of a detailed analysis of approximately 100 countries, 15 demand sectors and 20 fuel types and is underpinned by economic and population projections and expectations of significant energy efficiency improvements and technology advancements.
Rising electricity demand -- and the choice of fuels used to generate that electricity -- represent a key focus area, which will have a major impact on the global energy landscape over the next two decades. According to the outlook, global electricity demand will rise by more than 80 percent through 2030 from 2005 levels. In the non-OECD (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) countries alone demand will soar by more than 150 percent as economic and social development improve and more people gain access to electricity.
According to ExxonMobil’s Outlook, efforts to ensure reliable, affordable energy while also limiting greenhouse gas emissions will lead to polices in many countries that put a cost on carbon dioxide emissions. As a result, abundant supplies of natural gas will become increasingly competitive as an economic source of electric power as its use results in up to 60 percent fewer CO2 emissions than coal in generating electricity. Demand for natural gas for power generation is expected to rise by about 85 percent from 2005 to 2030 when natural gas will provide more than a quarter of the world’s electricity needs. Natural gas demand is rising in every region of the world but growth is strongest in non-OECD countries, particularly China where demand in 2030 will be approximately six times what it was in 2005.