poll no. 170 published by Palestinian Center for Public Opinion (PCPO).
Poll No. 170 Date: May 5, 2010
The most recent poll prepared by. Dr. Nabil Kukali on the present general conditions prevailing in the Palestinian territories has revealed that:
(60.8 %) of the Palestinians are at various degrees in favor of resuming the indirect
negotiations between Israeli and the Palestinians.
(53.0 %) have confidence in Fateh leadership, (15.0 %) in Hamas leadership.
(62.2 %) oppose at various degrees firing of Al-Qassam rockets from Gaza at Israel.
(72.2 %) oppose the outbreak of a third Intifada.
(44.2 %) oppose what Mr. Fahmi Shubana, an ex-Palestinian intelligence officer, did.
(92.1 %) believe that the Israeli decision # 1650 is unjust and doesn’t serve the peace
(47.3 %) would vote for Mahmoud Abbas, (14.6 %) for Ismael Haniyyeh.
(29.8 %) believe that Al-Jazeera is the most watched TV-channel,
(19.5 %) believe it’s Al-Arabiyyeh.
Beit Sahour – Information Section:
In the most recent poll prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali, Director of the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion (PCPO) and conducted during the period from March 15 – 28, 2010, a random sample of (1153) respondents representing the various demographic specimens of the population in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and Gaza Strip over (17) years has been interviewed. The outcome revealed that a great majority of the Palestinian public, specifically (60.8 %), are at present in favor of resuming the indirect negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians.
Dr. Nabil Kukali, the Director-General of the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion, said that the Palestinian public wish the resumption of the tripped peace process as to reach a fair and comprehensive peace, since they are convinced that there are no reasonable options except being inclined to the negotiated peace in order to obtain a viable state based on the Palestinian constants. Dr. Kukali further added that the Palestinians do believe a third Intifada will not serve the Palestinian interests at present, and subsequently the overwhelming majority (72.2 %), where (74.7 %) are residents of Gaza Strip and (70.8 %) of the West Bank, are not in its favor.
Dr. Kukali argued that a clear majority of the Palestinian public, namely (62.2 %), oppose the firing of Al-Qassam rockets from Gaza at Israel, as the man in the street may have perceived that the consequences of firing rockets are detrimental to the interests of the Palestinians and give Israel the justification to attack Gaza Strip.
At the conclusion of his comments, the prominent pollster indicated that more than half of the Palestinian public, specifically (53.0 %), trust now Fateh leadership. (37.1 %) thereof are residents of Gaza Strip, and (62.1 %) of the West Bank, whilst only (15.0 %) trust Hamas leadership, allocated as follows: (21.8 %) are from Gaza and (11.1 %) from the West Bank.
The Palestinian-Israeli Negotiations:
Responding to the question: “According to your opinion, if Israel would agree to freeze the settlement activity for four months in East Jerusalem in order to resume the indirect talks between the Palestinians and the Israelis, would you support or oppose that ?”, (15.4 %) said they would strongly support that, (45.4 %) somewhat support, (20.5 %) somewhat oppose, (9.0 %) strongly oppose and (9.7 %) said “I don’t know”.
And to the question: “Do you strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat oppose or strongly oppose the peace negotiations between the Palestinians and the Israelis ?”, (15.1 %) said they would strongly support that, (42.9 %) somewhat support, (20.8 %) somewhat oppose, (13.3 %) strongly oppose and (7.9 %) said “ I don’t know”.
Outbreak of a Third Intifada:
(72.2 %) of the Palestinian public oppose the outbreak of a third Intifada similar to that of 1987 and the much more violent “Al-Aqsa Intifada” of 2000, whilst only (22.8 %) are in favor of an outbreak of a third Intifada and
(5.0 %) refused to answer the question.
Confidence in the Political Leadership:
(53.0 %) of the respondents have confidence in Fateh leadership, whilst only (15.0 %) have confidence in Hamas, however a considerable rate of (26.3 %) have no confidence in both leaderships, and (5.7 %) were undecided.
The Israeli Military Decision no. 1650:
More than 9 out of 10 Palestinians, specifically 92.1 %, find that the Israeli military decision # 1650, issued by the commander of the Israeli forces operating in the west Bank, General Ghadi Shimani, that is aiming at expelling tens of thousands of Palestinians from the West Bank, including Jerusalem, is unjust and doesn’t serve the peace efforts, whilst only (2.3 %) are of opposite opinion, and (5.6 %) declined to respond to the question.
Proposal of the former US President, Bill Clinton:
Regarding the question: “ Do you support, or not, the reaching of a final settlement with the Israelis on the basis of the proposal of the former US President, Bill Clinton, that suggests the transfer of almost all territories of the West Bank to the Palestinian Authority and a land swap in certain areas?”, (14.2 %) said “I strongly support”, (38.6 %) “I somewhat support”,
(22.7 %) “I somewhat oppose” and (17.4 %) “I strongly oppose”. (7.1 %) said “ I don’t know”.
Firing Al-Qassam Rockets at Israel:
Responding to the question: “What is your attitude regarding the re-firing of Al-Qassam rockets from Gaza at Israel ?, (11.1 %) said “I’m strongly in favor of that”, (18.0 %) “I’m somewhat in favor of that”, (31.6 %) “I somewhat oppose that”, (30.6 %) “I strongly oppose that”, and (8.9 %) said “I don’t know”.
Performance of the PA-President, Mr. Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazin):
(49.7 %) of the Palestinian public are satisfied with the way Mr. Mahmoud Abbas is managing his post as PA President, whilst (32.5 %) are of contrary opinion and (17.8 %) refused to answer.
Security Condition in the West Bank:
With respect to the question: “How would you evaluate the security condition at present in the West Bank (ask only in the west Bank) ?”, (20.3 %) said “very good”, (42.5 %) “good”, (18.9 %) “mediocre”, (6.2 %) “bad”, (8.9 %) “very bad” and (3.2 %) said “ I don’t know”.
(57.2 %) of the Palestinian public expressed their desire to participate in the coming local elections even if these were refused by Hamas, whilst (30.7 %) said they won’t participate and (21.1 %) were undecided.
The poll results revealed that the most favorite candidate for the PA presidency in the coming presidential elections is Mahmoud Abbas
(32.9 %), followed by the detainee Marwan Barghouthi (13.1 %) in the second position, in the third position by Ismael Haniyyeh (12.4 %), Salam Fayyad in the fourth position with (8.2 %), followed by Mohammad Dahlan (4.1 %), Mustapha Barghouthi (2.6 %), Tayseer Khaled (1.2 %), Mahmoud Zahhar (1.0 %), others (4.4 %), and (20.1 %) answered “I don’t know”.
Responding to the question: “If there would be soon new presidential elections for the Palestinian Authority, and there were as candidates Mahmoud Abbas from Fateh and Ismael Haniyyeh from Hamas, for whom you would vote ?”, (47.3 %) said “for Mahmoud Abbas”, (14.6 %) “for Ismael Haniyyeh”, (29.1 %) said “I would not participate in the elections”, and
(9.0 %) said “ I don’t know”.
And to the question: “If Marwan Barghouthi from Fateh and Ismael Haniyyeh from Hamas would compete against each other for the PA presidency, for whom would you vote ?”, (49.4 %) said “for Marwan Barghouthi”, (15.8 %) “for Ismael Haniyyeh”, (24.7 %) said they won’t participate in the elections, (10.1 %) said “I don’t know”.
In regard to the question: ”If Mahmoud Abbas would compete against Salam Fayyad in the next presidential elections, for whom would you vote ?”,
(39.4 %) said “for Mahmoud Abbas”, (12.3 %) “for Salam Fayyad”,
(37.6 %) said they won’t participate in the elections, and (10.7 %) replied “ I don’t know”.
And “should the competition be between Marwan Barghouthi and Salam Fayyad, for whom would you vote ?”, (41.4 %) said “for Marwan Barghouthi”, (17.4 %) “for Salam Fayyad”, (31.8 %) said they won’t participate in the elections, and (9.4 %) said “ I don’t know”.
And once again:” Should the competition be between Ismael Haniyyeh and Salam Fayyad, for whom would you vote?”, (16.3 %) said “for Ismael Haniyyeh”, (41.5 %) “for Salam Fayyad”, (31.4 %) said they won’t participate in the elections, and (10.8 %) said “I don’t know”.
Palestine Unity Elections:
Do you support, or not, Palestine Unity Elections, with West Bank, Gaza, refugees, diaspora all voting on the same day, in Palestinian elections?
(39.9 %) said “I strongly support”, (30.2 %) “I somewhat support”,
(15.3 %) “I somewhat oppose” and (6.7 %) “I strongly oppose”. (7.9%) said “ I don’t know”.
Rafiq Al-Hussaini Case:
(44.4 %) of the Palestinian public oppose the video-taping done by the former Palestinian intelligence agent, Fahmi Shubana, scandalizing thereby the ex-office director of the PA President, Rafiq Al-Hussaini, whilst (35.5 %) are in favor of that, and (20.1 %) declined to answer the question.
(29.8 %) of the Palestinians believe that Al-Jazeera is the most watched TV channel, followed by Al-Arabiyyeh (19.5 %), Palestine TV (15.5 %) in the third position, MBC (13.4 %) in the fourth position, followed by Al-Aqsa TV (10.9 %), LBC (5.9 %), and others (5.0 %).
Public Opinion Polls:
Regarding the question:” Generally, up to which extent do you trust what you see or hear from the public opinion polls ? Can you say: very much, somewhat, not so much, or absolutely not” ?, (12.8 %) said “very much”, (44.9 %) “somewhat”, (33.4 %) “not so much”, (7.0 %) “absolutely not” and (1.9 %) said “I don’t know”.
Methodology of the Survey Study:
Mr. Elias Kukali, a staff member of the Research and Studies’ Section at the PCPO, said that all interviews of this survey were conducted inside the respondents’ homes, i.e. face-to-face during different working hours, at least five hours a’ day, including the evening time, in order to ensure proper presentation of those sub-groups of the population, which would otherwise be difficult to reach and selecting one individual in each household using the Last Birthday Method. The choices were taken from a total of (160) election sites, from which (119) are located in the West Bank and (41) sites in Gaza Strip.
Mr. E. Kukali has further established that the margin of error in this poll was (+- 2.9 %) at a confidence level of (95 %). He added that the rate of the female respondents in this survey was (48.6 %) and that of the male respondents was (51.4 %) . The distribution of the random sample between the Palestinian two major regions was (65.7 %) in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and (34.3 %) in Gaza Strip, allocated as follows: (49.3 %) urban areas, (32.2 %) rural areas and (18.5 %) refugee camps. The average age of the sample respondents was (32.3) years.
The Palestinian Center for Public Opinion (PCPO) was founded in February 1994 in Beit Sahour by Dr. Nabil Kukali, who became the director of this center since that time.
Since that time we are dedicated to the following activities:
1) Conducting public opinion surveys.
2) Omnibus polls and services.
3) Market studies on all kinds of trading activities.
4) Surveys of consumer attitudes, consumption habits, and market shares.
5) Communication researches.
6) Focus group sessions and workshops on various topics.
7) Rendering services in the field of investment, including feasibility studies.
8) In-depth interviews & brainstorming workshops.
9) Translation services from Arabic into English, German & Hebrew and vice-versa.
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