A report by the respected London-based Centre for Global Energy Studies has projected that oil prices will remain high until the end of 2000,with any further increases of OPEC production having only a modest effect. However, after winter has passed the organization predicted that the price of crude oil would fall throughout 2001.
Saying that OPEC had left it too late to prevent possible winter price spikes, the Centre for Global Energy Studies said that benchmark Brent rates will average between $28.31 and $31 per barrel in the final quarter of 2000,depending on any further OPEC output. Without extra production, the center estimated this year's average price would be $28.3 per barrel, but with an additional 500,000 barrels per day increase from OPEC, this would be cut to $27.51 per barrel.
The center forecast that the prices of Brent in 2001 would decline from $28.37 per barrel in the first quarter to $19.81 per barrel in the fourth quarter, with an annual average price of $22.72 per barrel. This assumed that there was no increase in the OPEC production levels agreed in June. The fall would be significantly steeper, $25.32 per barrel to $12.67 per barrel, in the event OPEC agrees to increase output by 500,000 and maintains the extra production in 2001. – (Albawaba-MEBG)
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