Global Investment House – Saudi Arabic Economic & Strategic Outlook – Population Growth –The preliminary results of the Third National Census of Population and Housing reported Saudi population at 22.7mn at the end of 2004 and keeping in mind the past years growth is expected to have reached 23.1mn at the end of 2005. However, there is some disagreement regarding the population size with the UN and other international agencies pegging the population at around 24.5mn at the end of 2005.
Population & Labor Force 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004Total Population (mn) 19.5 21.0 21.5 22.0 22.7Saudi Population (mn) 14.9 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.5Non-Saudi Population (mn) 4.5 5.7 5.8 6.0 6.1 Total Labor Force (mn) 5.71 5.80 5.91 5.87 6.75Unemployment Rate 4.6% 4.6% 5.3% N/A N/ASaudi 8.2% 8.3% 9.7% N/A N/ANon- Saudi 1.1% 0.9% 0.8% N/A N/A Yearly Growth Rate of Labor Force 2.4% 1.6% 1.9% -0.7% 15.0%Source: Central Department of Statistics, Ministry of PlanningAt the end of 2004, according to the census, there are 16.5mn Saudi citizens as compared to 6.1mn expatriates residing in the country. Saudi Arabia is experiencing very high population growth rates which will require additional services, be it medical, infrastructure or social security.
High population growth rate…Saudi Arabia growth rate in one of the highest in world which puts a pressure on government to provide for basic amenities, infrastructure and medical services to its population. With the increase in the life expectancy, there is greater need for medical services and the government is upgrading the medical system but we feel that there is a greater need for private participation in the medical sector.
Indicator 2000-2005Population change per year (thousands) 618Births per year, both sexes combined (thousands) 657Deaths per year, both sexes combined (thousands) 89Population growth rate (%) 2.69Crude birth rate (per 1,000 population) 28.5Crude death rate (per 1,000 population) 3.9Total fertility rate (children per woman) 4.09Net reproduction rate (per woman) 1.92Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 births) 22.5Life expectancy at birth, both sexes combined (years) 71.6Life expectancy at birth, males (years) 69.9Life expectancy at birth, females (years) 73.8Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations
2004 census findings…The Makkah Region has the largest population in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia accounting for 25.6 percent of the 22.67mn national population, according to the preliminary results of the recently concluded Third National Census of Population and Housing. The Makkah Region had a population of 5.79mn (25.6% of the total population), followed by Riyadh Region at 5.45mn (24.1%) and the Eastern Province at 3.36mn (14.8%) according to Central Statistics Department of the Ministry of Economy and Planning.
The expatriate population was put at 6.1mn, or 27.1 percent of the Kingdom's total population. In 1992, the number of expatriates living in the Kingdom was put at 4.6mn. The recent census, which was carried out in September-2004, was the first since the 1992 count that placed the total number of population at 16.95mn.
City-wise, the Saudi capital Riyadh ranked first with a population of 4.1mn, followed by Jeddah at 2.8mn, Makkah at 1.3mn and Madina at 0.9mn, The combined Saudi population in the three administrative regions Makkah, Riyadh and Eastern Province, which are considered to be the major development centers constituted 59.7 percent of the Kingdom's population. The largest concentration of expatriates in the Kingdom is in the cities like Makkah, Riyadh, the Eastern Province and Medina, which had 83.2 percent of the total non-Saudi population. The expatriates in Makkah represent 36 percent of the total city’s population followed by Riyadh (28.1%), the Eastern Province (13.1%) and Medina (6%).
The government has not been clear about the unemployment situation in the country although with the growing importance of Saudization program, it can be inferred that the unemployment situation is at the alarming levels. The is also compounded by the demographic profile of the nation wherein 50% of the population is in the age 24-60 years while 18.2% is the in the age 15-24 category ready to join the work force in the next decade. We believe that the government intention to increase the education level by providing higher allocation to manpower development programs will help in containing the unemployment levels in future.However, the main focus of the government has been on providing adequate training and development to the Saudi so that they are well-equipped in taking up the job both in the private as well as public sector. One of the major contributors of employment in the emerging economies has always been the small and medium enterprise and we believe the country needs to develop more SMEs by providing incentives to entrepreneurs. Saudi Arabian General Investment Authority (SAGIA) is focusing its activities on certain strategic investment sectors, education being a key one. SAGIA is focusing on knowledge-based industries (KBI) and attracting foreign investment for this sector in the Kingdom.