Assad's last hurrah: as he hits Libya-level crisis we look at the parallels

Assad and Gaddafi: age aside, the similarities are obvious. Or are they? Although the Syrian chaos is more often compared to Iraq [1], we take a look at a less obvious, but quite tempting, parallel to get a feel of whether the end is nigh for the Syrian dictator. Since Libya's downfall came first, we can see the signs of a leader's demise playing out now in Assad's regime. Today's news that almost half of Syria's second city, the strategic northern Aleppo [2], is now under control is a stark reminder of the Benghazi rebel stronghold last year. In Libya, the rebels used this point of strength to attack the capital but with loyal supporters still clinging on in Damascus, can the FSA do the same? And what will become of the now infamous Syrian president? While he gave less delusional speeches [3] than the late Libyan dictator, like Gaddafi, he has given up the battlefield for a safer hiding place [4] but will he face the same grizzly fate once the rebels find him? Some critics have said FSA brutality is a hindrance to a successful post-revolution government. And the Syrian 'rebel's' after all have the advantage of hindsight and learning they can glean from the Libyan story. For Gaddafi, there was no restraint shown in the manner of his murder [5]or the subsequent far-fetched rumors of his resurrection. Share your thoughts on what stage of the game you think Syria has reached. Is it quite game over for Assad, or does he stand a fighting chance of escaping the ugly finish visited upon Gaddafi?

Assad and Gaddafi, Syria and Libya: the similarities are too inviting not to comment. The signs of Libya's end are being seen in Syria, and Assad's finish looks imminent, going by Gaddafi's downfall. Using the respective parallels we can draw between the two cases, we try to glean whether the end is nigh for Syria's Lion.

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The high-ranking defections in both countries signaled the beginning of the end. For Syria they happened a little later than in Libya but as the Syrian generals keep popping up in Turkey to tell their side of the story, you might wonder who is left to lead the regime troops. Syrian defector, Manaf Tlas (left) and the Libyan Mousa Kousa (right).

The inner sanctum is hit: a sure sign in Libya of Gaddafi's imminent demise was the death of his son, Khamis in a bold move by rebels. Assad suffered a similar loss when rebels went straight for his inner circles and bombed Damascus two weeks ago. His brother-in-law and confidante, Assef Shawkat, was among the victims.

The battle for the second city: In Libya the takeover of Benghazi by rebel forces was key to overthrowing the regime once and for all. The FSA has fought bitterly for northern capital, Aleppo, for almost a week and reports now indicate they control over half of this territory.

Where is Assad? The public appearance of both ex-Libyan leader and current Syrian president have followed a very similar pattern. As the fighting intensified both have gone into hiding. While Gaddafi issued more and more bizarre audio messages from his secret location, Assad's last official speech was June 2.

The state media crumbles: In Libya we saw news anchor, Hala Musrati, a tireless supporter of the regime, finally crack just before Gaddafi was overthrown. In Syria, the pro-regime TV station, Al Dunya, has started to show signs of decay as presenters report

Will they kill him? With Gaddafi long dead, the signs are not good for Assad as rebels warn of Alawi reprisals as soon as the regime is overthrown. If he faces a fate similar to the Libyan dictator then it will be a vicious and brutal end, fitting perhaps given the regime's unmitigated behavior towards the rebels.

To intervene or not to intervene: Foreign intervention shows the biggest disparity between the two countries as there have been no signs of a NATO-style invasion for Syria. Although scrape the surface, and could the covert Saudi weapons aid have the same effect?

Back from the dead: Should Syria's Lion end up dead at the hands of his people or sentenced a la Mubarak style, would he gain the martyrdom that Gaddafi finally came to assume -- having a voice beyond the grave? Larger than (dictator's) life?