MIDDAY SNAPSHOT & ANALYSIS OF SELECTED RATES
Lack of event risk or economic releases in the US leave the markets continuing to trade on broader global macro fundamentals, with the USD seen as the primary beneficiary. The only release this morning has come out of Canada, with housing starts managing to come in better than expected. Technically, all of the major currencies are now testing their respective 20-Day SMAs, and it will be interesting to see how the markets react off of the shorter-term moving average. The IMF’s Strauss-Kahn has been getting some attention this morning after saying that a lot of bank losses have yet to be disclosed. Meanwhile EU Almunia attempted to express some optimism after saying that the worst was over. In the UK, there has been more talk of negative Sterling M&A flows with reports that Abu-Dhabi will sell approximately GBP3.5B of its share in Barclays. However, a recent article out of the Telegraph today has helped to offset some of the weakness, after reporting that Barclays is closing on the sale of Barclays Global Investors to Blackrock for over GBP8B. Also seen weighing on investor sentiment has been the overnight downgrade of Ireland to AA with a negative outlook from S&P. The Yen is the only currency up against the USD today, while Kiwi is the weakest major currency. US equities are all down some 1% or lower, led by the declines in the NASDAQ (-1.35%). Commodities also trade lower.
ANALYSIS OF SELECTED RATES
Usd/Mxn: There could be some decent upside ahead for the pair after finally breaking above some multi-day consolidation. The market had traded down to fresh 2009 lows by 12.82 in the end of May, but had since been locked in some very tight trade. Monday’s break above 13.40 now triggers a fresh upside extension and opens the door to some more significant gains over the coming days back towards the 14.00 area. Look for intraday dips to now be well supported ahead of 13.00.
Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com
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Joel Kruger publishes 6 daily pieces:
“Tech Talk” – A Daily Video Highlighting Technical Developments in the Overnight Session of Trade.
Monday-Friday (between 5:30am-6:30am EST)
“Morning Slices” – Morning Overview using Fundamental, Technical, Flow, and Quantitative Analysis (Includes “Trade of the Day”).
Monday-Friday (between 6:30am-7:30am EST)
“Indicator of the Day” – A Feature Report that Highlights our Most Significant Technical Indicator of the Day.
Monday-Friday (between 8:00am-9:00am EST)
“Cross Country” – A Midday Fundamental Update, along with Technical Analysis of Selected Cross Rates.
Monday-Friday (between 10:30am-11:30am EST)
“Scandi Daily” – A Specialized Daily Fundamental and Technical Overview of the Nordic Currencies. (This report is only distributed through email. Please contact Nordic@fxcm.com if you would like to be added to distribution.)
Monday-Friday (between 11:30am-12:30pm EST)
“Daily Classical” – A Daily Technical Overview of the Major Currencies.
Monday-Friday (published between 2:00pm-3:00pm EST)
