USD/CHF Buy Recommendation Issued @1.0215 (Daily Classical)

Published September 24th, 2009 - 11:34 GMT

•    Euro to stall by 1.4800
•    Dollar/Yen to find bids
•    Cable eyes key 1.5985
•    Dollar/Swiss buy issued

– We are not going to get too excited just yet, with the market still supported on dips to the 10-Day SMA for now. However, we continue to recommend looking for opportunities to fade the overbought major with a top of some form likely to establish over the very short-term. For now, any rallies on Thursday should be well capped in the 1.4800 area, with gains not seen extending to retest Wednesday’s 2009 high at 1.4845. Key short-term support comes initially by the 10-Day at 1.4700, with a break exposing 1.4610 further down. STRATEGY: STAND ASIDE FOR NOW; LOOK TO SELL RALLIES

USD/JPY – Back under pressure since gains from Monday’s bullish price action stalled out shy of the 93.30 double bottom objective in favor of a resumption of the broader downtrend. It is too early to tell at this point, but a lower top could now be in place by 92.55 ahead of the next drop below 90.00 and towards critical support by 87.15.  We do not hold any strong bias at current levels and recommend taking to the sidelines. For today at least, we do not see declines extending below 90.00 with the greater risk for yet another bounce.  STRATEGY: STAND ASIDE FOR NOW; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL 

GBP/USD – We continue to maintain a sell on rallies approach to this market with the view that the pair has made a meaningful high above 1.7000 this year. The market looks to be in the process of carving the right shoulder of a head & shoulders top that ultimately would project setbacks to 1.5000 over the coming weeks. We are now nearing and expected to test key neckline support which comes in just under psychological barriers at 1.6000. Wednesday’s bearish gravestone formation reaffirms bearish outlook.   STRATEGY: STAND ASIDE FOR NOW; LOOK TO SELL RALLIES

USD/CHF – While we think the market could finally be ready for a major upside correction, we do not see this happening without some form of a fight on Thursday. There seems to be room for one more intraday pullback towards 1.0200 before the rally can finally start to get going. The 1.0200 area is major longer-term support, representing the 78.6% fib retracement off of the critical 2008 low-high, and we see any additional pullbacks from here as limited. With the current daily high by 1.0305, the daily projected ATR low would come in directly by the 1.0200 longer-term 78.6% fib, while the 78.6% fib retracement off of the recent 1.1085-1.0305 comes in by 1.0210. As such, we will look to take advantage of another intraday dip towards 1.0200, to establish a fresh long position. Daily studies are just starting to show a willingness to turn up from oversold, which helps to reaffirm bullish outlook. Fundamentally, it certainly is not a bad thing to have a concerned SNB on our side for this trade. STRATEGY: BUY @1.0215 FOR AN OPEN OBJECTIVE; STOP 1.0085. RECOMMENDATION TO BE REMOVED IF NOT TRIGGERED BY CLOSE (5PM NY) ON THURSDAY. 

Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist for
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