Poll No. 171 Date: July 11, 2010
The most recent poll of the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion (PCPO) prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali has revealed that:
(46.8 %) of the Palestinian support the Palestinian government’s decision
postponing the local municipal councils’ elections until further notice.
(65.2 %) believe that those mostly benefiting from the flotillas sent to break the
Gaza blockade are the Gazans.
(52.5 %) believe that the indirect Israeli-Palestinian talks will be a failure.
(53.3 %) believe that the Israelis are not concerned about making peace with the
Palestinians.
(69.3 %) support the intention of the PA President Mahmoud Abbas to pay a visit
to Gaza.
(46.0 %) have confidence in Fateh leadership, (33.7 %) in Hamas leadership.
(81.8 %) oppose the renunciation of the right of home return.
(43.2 %) watch the FIFA world cup competitions on TV.
Beit Sahour – Section of Public Relations:
The most recent poll prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali, conducted and published by the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion during the period from June 17 to July 2nd, 2010, covered a random sample of (1002) respondents representing the various demographic specimens of adult Palestinians (18 years and above) living in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and Gaza Strip. The poll revealed that a great majority of the Palestinians, reaching (69.3 %), support the intention of the PA President Mahmoud Abbas to pay a visit to Gaza in the near future.
Dr. Nabil Kukali, Director-General of the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion, said that after a good while of indirect talks between the Palestinians and the Israelis there is a general feeling among the Palestinians that these talks will fail. It’s obvious, so believe the Palestinians, that Israel permanently tries to undermine the requirements of the negotiation process. More than half of the Palestinian public, specifically(53.3 %), doesn’t trust the Israeli intentions and believe that the Israelis are not concerned about making peace with the Palestinians.
Dr. Kukali further added that a clear majority of the Palestinians are of the opinion that the party most benefiting from the flotillas sent to break the Gaza blockade are the Gazans themselves, for the blockade levied by Israel on Gaza Strip is seen as a form of collective punishment. The pressing necessity arises now to lift this unjust blockade as to put an end to this unbearable hardship the people in Gaza Strip are suffering from.
In his comments on the results of this poll, Dr. Kukali mentioned that the confidence of the Palestinians in Hamas leadership has increased by (18.7 %) compared with the results of the poll conducted in April. This rise in confidence, Dr. Kukali stated, may be attributed to the popular solidarity against the Israeli assault on the humanitarian aid flotilla heading to Gaza as well as to the opening of the border crossings between Gaza Strip and Egypt by the Egyptian government, and last, but not least, to the blockade easing measures announced, and partly applied by the Israelis themselves. “All this”, Dr. Kukali said, “has obviously contributed to the sudden rise of the popular confidence in Hamas leadership. This rise in confidence comes unexpectedly from the West Bank, where Hamas scored (41.3 %) against (19.8 %) in their domain in Gaza Strip, giving an overall result of (33.7 %) “.
Regarding Fateh, the popular confidence in its leadership in the West Bank (48.2 %) and in Gaza Strip (42.1 %) is almost balanced, giving an overall result of (46.0 %) throughout the Palestinian territories. This outcome however indicates that Fateh has still in Gaza Strip numerically more than the double of Hamas supporters.
With respect to the US peace commitment, Dr. Kukali pointed out that there is among the Palestinians an increasing feeling of frustration due to the inability of the United States to exert more pressure on Israel as to stop the settlement activities, particularly in East Jerusalem, and to make a progress towards the peace process. This could indicate a clear retreat from the US commitment declared by President Barack Obama to put an end to the Israeli occupation, to establish a Palestinian state and to achieve a comprehensive and just peace in the region.
Dr. Nabil Kukali said the results of the poll were as follows:
01) The Palestinian government with Salam Fayyad as its Prime Minister has declared the postponement of the municipal council elections until further notice. Are you with or against the postponement decision?
Response Percentage
1. With the postponement decision 46.8
2. Against the postponement decision 41.2
3. Don’t know 12
02) What do you think is the main reason that induced the Palestinian Prime Minister,
Mr. Salam Fayyad, to postpone the date of the local municipal elections?
Response Percentage
1. Giving more chance to the efforts working on lifting the Gaza
blockade and the reunion of both country territories. 39.6
2. Differences inside Fateh about candidacy procedures and
candidate lists. 37.6
3. Responding to Hamas demands 3.3
4. A new precedent, not respecting the multiplicity and a blow to
the democratic process 3.2
5. Israel is not willing to have the elections at present. 10.2
6. The United States and Europe are not encouraging to run these
elections at present. 6.0
03) In general, to which extent are you content with the mechanism applied for setting up the candidates’ lists during the preparation period for the municipal councils’ elections, which are postponed until further notice?
Response Percentage
1.Content 19.9
2. Somewhat content 43.3
3. Discontent 24.5
4. Don’t know 12.4
04) Having experienced now the process of setting up the candidate’s lists for the municipal council elections, do you think that the proportional representation (list system) is better than the system applied in 2006 (voting for individual candidates and winning by majority of the votes) or vice versa?
Response Percentage
1. The proportional representation (the new system) is better 44.9
2. The system applied in 2005 (voting for individual candidates) is better 41.9
3. Don’t know 13.2
05) Who, you believe, is mostly benefiting from the flotillas sent to break the Gaza blockade?
Response Percentage
1. The Gazans 65.2
2. Hamas and its leadership 25.7
3. Israel 1.4
4. Fateh 1.4
5. International Islamic movements 6.3
06) How would you rate the meeting of the PA President Abu Mazin with the US-President Barack Obama?
Response Percentage
1. Very positive 6.2
2. Somewhat positive 38
3. Somewhat negative 28.9
4. Very negative 17.2
5. Don’t know 9.6
07) Do you think the present US-administration under the President Barack Obama would back the plan of recognizing a Palestinian state within the next two years irrespective of its approval or disapproval by Israel?
Response Percentage
1. Yes 13.3
2. No 76.5
3. Don’t know 10.2
08) Do you think, in general, the United States of America strongly support, somewhat support, somewhat doesn’t support, or doesn’t support at all Israel?
Response Percentage
1. Strongly support Israel 73.6
2. Somewhat support Israel 19.5
3. Somewhat doesn’t support Israel 2.4
4. Doesn’t support Israel at all 2.6
5. Don’t know 1.9
09) What are your anticipations of the success chances of the indirect Israeli-Palestinian negotiations? Will they succeed or fail in reaching an agreement of permanent peace?
Response Percentage
1. Certainly, they will succeed 1.5
2. They will succeed 36.6
3. They will fail 41.1
4. They will surely fail 11.4
5. No opinion / Don’t know 9.4
10) Do you expect the realization of a peace agreement between the Palestinians and the Israelis next year?
Response Percentage
1.Yes 4.4
2. Likely 47.2
3. No 45.8
4. Don’t know 2.5
11) Do you think the Israelis are concerned about making peace with the Palestinians?
Response Percentage
1. Yes 10.9
2. To some extent 32.3
3. No 53.3
4. Don’t know 3.6
12) Assuming the negotiations between the Palestinians and the Israelis would fail, do you expect the outbreak of a third Intifada?
Response Percentage
1. Yes 31.9
2. No 50.7
3. Don’t know 17.3
13) Are you more optimistic or pessimistic than in the past regarding the possibility of reaching a final solution accord between Israel and the Palestinians?
Response Percentage
1. More optimistic than in the past 8.4
2. Same extent of optimism as in the past 35.2
3. Same extent of pessimism as in the past 30.3
4. More pessimistic than in the past 20.9
5. Don’t know / No attitude 5.2
14) Do you think that the Palestinians must renounce their right of home return, which Israel will never accept, in exchange for having an independent Palestinian state and the conclusion of a peace deal with Israel?
Response Percentage
1. Yes, the Palestinians must do that 14.0
2. No, they shouldn’t do that even if the price would be the
non- conclusion of a peace deal with Israel 81.7
3. I have no opinion 4.3
15) If the Palestinian leadership would waive the right of home return in exchange for a financial compensation, would you accept or refuse that?
Response Percentage
1. I would accept that 13.1
2. I would refuse that 81.8
3. Don’t know 5.1
16) Some people have confidence in Hamas political leadership, others in Fateh political leadership, whilst others have no confidence in both leaderships. Which of the following statements is closer to your opinion?
Response Percentage
1. I have confidence in Hamas leadership 33.7
2. I have confidence in Fateh leadership 46.0
3. I have no confidence in both leaderships 16.5
4. I don’t know 3.8
17) The internal fighting in Gaza led to the split of Gaza Strip from the West Bank and the creation of two separate governments, one in Gaza and the other in the West Bank. What is – in your opinion – the most feasible solution for the settlement of this problem?
Response Percentage
1. To return to the government of national unity 35.4
2. To endorse the Egyptian Reconciliation Document 36.1
3. To hold premature elections 26.6
4. To call for UN forces to take responsibility for Gaza Strip 1.9
18) Do you support or oppose the intention of the PA President, Mr. Mahmoud Abbas, to pay a visit to Gaza Strip in the near future?
Response Percentage
1. Strongly support 25.6
2. Support 43.7
3. Undecided 14.2
4. Oppose 7.4
5. Strongly oppose 6.9
6. Don’t know 2.2
19) Do you watch daily the World Cup Football Competition on TV?
Response Percentage
1. Yes (Proceed to Q 21) 43.2
2. No 56.8
20) Which of the following football teams do you expect to win the FIFA World Cup?
(Pre-coded, open answer)
Response Percentage
1. France 5.2
2. Algeria 7.3
3. Holland 1.3
4. Ghana 1.5
5. Germany 7.8
6. Great Britain 3.7
7. Italy 9.1
8. Portugal 3.7
9. Spain 4.8
10. Brazil 34.3
11. Argentina 14.5
12. Other 6.8
Methodology of the Survey Study:
Mr. Elias Kukali, a staff member of the Research and Studies’ Section at the PCPO, said that all interviews of this survey were conducted inside the respondents’ homes, i.e. face-to-face during different working hours, at least five hours a’ day, including the evening time, in order to ensure proper presentation of those sub-groups of the population, which would otherwise be difficult to reach and selecting one individual in each household using the Last Birthday Method. The choices were taken from a total of (156) election sites, from which (117) are located in the West Bank and (39) sites in Gaza Strip.
Mr. E. Kukali has further established that the margin of error in this poll was (+- 3.09 %) at a confidence level of (95 %). He added that the rate of the female respondents in this survey was (49.4 %) and that of the male respondents was (50.6%) . The distribution of the random sample between the Palestinian two major regions was (64.4 %) in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and (35.6 %) in Gaza Strip, allocated as follows: (52.7 %) urban areas, (31.1 %) rural areas and (16.2 %) refugee camps. The average age of the sample respondents was (34.8) years.
About PCPO:
The Palestinian Center for Public Opinion (PCPO) was founded in February 1994 in Beit Sahour by Dr. Nabil Kukali, who became the director of this center since that time.
Since that time we are dedicated to the following activities:
1) Conducting public opinion surveys.
2) Omnibus polls and services.
3) Market studies on all kinds of trading activities.
4) Surveys of consumer attitudes, consumption habits, and market shares.
5) Communication researches.
6) Focus group sessions and workshops on various topics.
7) Rendering services in the field of investment, including feasibility studies.
8) In-depth interviews & brainstorming workshops.
9) Translation services from Arabic into English, German & Hebrew and vice-versa.
PCPO is now a name for reliability, credibility and experience not only in Palestine, but all over the world.
