Boeing forecasts a $4 trillion market for new aircraft over the next 20 years with a significant increase in forecasted deliveries. That’s according to the Boeing 2011 Current Market Outlook (CMO) released today in Paris. The company’s annual commercial aviation market analysis foresees a market for 33,500 new passenger airplanes and freighters between 2011 and 2030.
“The world market has recovered and is now expanding at a significant rate,” said Randy Tinseth, vice president of Marketing, Boeing Commercial Airplanes. “Not only is there a strong demand for air travel and new airplanes today, but the fundamental drivers of air travel – including economic growth, world trade and liberalization – all point to a healthy long-term demand.”
Passenger traffic is expected to grow at 5.1 percent annual rate over the long-term and the world fleet is expected to double by 2030. The single-aisle market will continue to see strong demand around the world and is expected to increase its share of the market. Fleet composition will change significantly by 2030 with single-aisle jets making up 70 percent of the total.
Robust growth in China, India and other emerging markets will lead to a more balanced airplane demand worldwide. China, which has experienced double-digit growth in gross domestic product in recent years, is forecasted to grow at 7 percent per annum, while South Asia, which includes India, is forecast to grow at 7.1 percent.
Asia Pacific is forecasted to need the most new airplanes over the next 20 years and will represent the largest market by value of deliveries at more than $1.5 trillion. The region will account for more than a third of new deliveries worldwide, while the Middle East and Latin America will also continue to show very strong growth.
European and North American carriers will continue to see demand for replacement airplanes as they retire older, less fuel-efficient models. In fact, we predict 94 percent of the European fleet operating in 2030 will have been delivered after 2011, with airplanes that are better for the environment, passengers and the airlines. Forty percent of all new airplanes delivered over the next two decades will be replacements.
The current industry backlog of more than 2,000 twin-aisle aircraft shows the strength of this market segment. The continued growth in long-haul connections will fuel the need for new twin-aisle airplanes due to the increase in new, nonstop markets. With 1,400 deliveries, twin-aisle airplanes will make up 19 percent of the total European deliveries during the forecast period. Liberalization, as well as fragmentation and new mid-size, long-range airplanes such as the 787 Dreamliner, the 777-200LR (long range) and 777-300ER (extended range), will increase the need for intermediate twin-aisle jets. While passengers are getting what they want – more frequencies and nonstop service – rising and volatile fuel prices are expected to continue to challenge the industry.
Freighter Fleet Forecast: 2011 to 2030
Boeing projects the world freighter fleet to increase from 1,760 to 3,500 airplanes. Additions to the fleet will include 970 new-production freighters (market value of $250 billion) and 1,990 airplanes converted from passenger models. Large (more than 88.2 tons capacity / 80 tonnes) freighters will account for 690 new-build airplanes. Medium (44.1 to 88.2 tons / 40 to 80 tonnes) freighters will total 280 airplanes. No new standard-body freighters (49.6 tons / less than 45 tonnes) will be required, but there will be 1,240 standard-body conversions. On average over the next 20 years, air cargo traffic will grow at a rate of 5.6 percent.
Five Decades of Boeing’s CMO
Since the beginning of the jet age, Boeing has produced a long-term market outlook. This year marks five decades of our CMO, which we first shared publicly 47 years ago. It is the longest running complete worldwide jet forecast and is regarded as the most respected and comprehensive analysis of the aviation industry.