WE WILL USE THE FIRST MONDAY OF THE MONTH AS AN OPPORTUNITY TO PROVIDE A BROADER OVERVIEW AND LONGER-TERM OUTLOOK FOR THE MAJOR CURRENCIES. ON TUESDAY, WE WILL RETURN TO THE REGULAR DAILY ANALYSIS.
• Euro pressing higher but rallies seen limited to 1.4000
• Dollar/Yen well capped for now ahead of 100.00
• Cable price action unclear at present
• Dollar/Swiss takes out 200-Day SMA but still constructive longer-term
• Dollar/Cad long triggered; trades to fresh 2009 lows
• Australian Dollar rallies above 0.7400 to fresh 2009 highs; considers major double bottom
• New Zealand Dollar locked in choppy sideways trade
EUR/USD
| EUR/USD – Very difficult to tell where we go from here with the major caught in the middle of a multi-day range. Ultimately however, the overall structure remains grossly bearish with any medium-term rallies back towards the 1.4000 area to be used as compelling opportunities to build on existing short positions. The market has been chopping around over the past few weeks and we expect the chop to continue with key shorter-term levels to watch above and below coming in by 1.3740 and 1.2885 respectively. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL. | | Level | Resistance | Details | | 1.3585 | R3 | 4/6 high | | 1.3500 | R2 | Psychological | | 1.3425 | R1 | 5/4 high | | Level | Support | Details | | 1.3195 | S1 | 4/30 low | | 1.3120 | S2 | 4/29 low | | 1.3000 | S3 | 4/27 low |
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USD/JPY
| USD/JPY – Continues to consolidate in choppy fashion following the March break of the major 87.15 double bottom neckline at 94.60. Ultimately, any setbacks are seen well supported towards the neckline, which now acts as former resistance turned support, ahead of an eventual test of the measured move double bottom objective in the 104.00 area. The market has finally broken back above the daily Ichimoku cloud which reaffirms our bullish outlook to 104.00. Any moves beyond 104.00 are however seen limited with the longer-term structure still bearish and favoring a fresh lower top ahead of the next major downside extension below 87.15. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL. | | Level | Resistance | Details | | 100.45 | R3 | 4/14 high | | 100.00 | R2 | Psychological | | 99.75 | R1 | 4/17 high | | Level | Support | Details | | 98.50 | S1 | 5/1 low | | 97.95 | S2 | 4/29 high | | 97.15 | S3 | 4/30 low |
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GBP/USD
| GBP/USD – The market seems to have found a base for now by 1.3500 and it remains to be seen whether we are merely in the process of a bearish consolidation or possibly looking to carve out a major bottom. At current levels there are no compelling opportunities and we recommend looking to favor the broader structure which is still bearish, by selling into rallies above 1.5000 and towards 1.5500. Key levels to watch over the coming weeks come in by 1.5375 and 1.4395. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL. | | Level | Resistance | Details | | 1.5375 | R3 | 1/8 2009 High | | 1.5200 | R2 | Figure | | 1.5070 | R1 | 4/16 high | | Level | Support | Details | | 1.4755 | S1 | 5/1 low | | 1.4705 | S2 | 4/30 low | | 1.4610 | S3 | 4/29 low |
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USD/CHF
| USD/CHF – Price action has been extremely choppy, but overall, our bias remains constructive with the market attempting to put in series of medium-term higher lows and higher highs since basing by 0.9635 in 2008. A fresh higher low is now sought out by 1.1165 to be confirmed on a break back above 1.2300. Below 1.1165 will delay recovery prospects and expose a deeper setback to the 1.1000 area, while back above 1.1740 encourages advance towards 1.2300. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL. | | Level | Resistance | Details | | 1.1525 | R3 | 4/24 high | | 1.1500 | R2 | 4/29 high | | 1.1450 | R1 | 4/29 high | | Level | |
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