1. AUDCAD
2. AUDJPY
3. AUDNZD
AUDCAD AUD/CAD has rallied off of its nearly four and a half year lows made at .8122 on 6/21. The long wicks on the daily chart combined with positive divergence with oscillators (on daily) at the 78.6% fibo of the April 2002-February 2004 .7500-1.0548 bull wave at .8150 imply continued strength. There is fact more evidence that this is a long term bottom the decline from the 5/3/05 high at .9792 to the recent low at .8122 is nearly identical to the previous decline from 2/20/04 at 1.0546 to .8815 on 9/9/04. Wave equality tends to indicate tops and bottoms. For these waves to be identical AUD/CAD would have to decline to .8061. Still, the difference between the two waves differ by just 3.5% as it stands now. As mentioned, possibility remains for an additional dip to test .8061 but the favored view is that the pair is nearing an important bottom.
AUDJPY The larger trend is down since AUD/JPY has continued to make lower lows and lower highs since December 2006. However, a 2 week consolidation following a rise from 83.46 to 85.66 may be ending, which would open the door for AUD/JPY to rally and possibly test the longer term downward sloping resistance line (that began on 12/6/05). The line is at 86.39 today and it falls about 3.6 pips per day. Additionally, a short term inverse head and shoulders on the hourly along with RSI rising from near oversold levels (on hourly) favor longs in the short term.
AUDNZD AUD/NZD is back on the rise after retracing 660 pips of its 1,996 pip rise (1.0428-1.0422) or 33% (just shy of the 38.2% fibo). Price action is certainly bullish now that the pair has broken above the 4/11 high at 1.2015. The bullish break significantly reduces the probability of a head and shoulders reversal pattern unfolding. The pair is rapidly approaching a resistance zone bound by the 78.6% fibo of 1.2422-1.1759 / 5/18 high between 1.2280/1.2307. A push through there exposes the 5/10 high at 1.2423. The mentioned 4/11 high at 1.2015 is now support. More immediate support comes in from yesterdays high at 1.2157.
CCI(20) 20 day Commodity Channel Index
> 0 bullish
0 > bearish
> 100 extremely bullish
-100 > - extremely bearish
RSI(14) 14 day Relative Strength Index
> 50 bullish
50 > bearish
> 70 overbought
30 > - oversold
MACD ? - MACD slope (MACD MACD[1])
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
Mom(8) 8 day Momentum (shorter-term direction)
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
ATR(14) 14 day Average True Range (volatility)
Medium 75th percentile* > ATR(14) > 25th percentile*
High - > 75th percentile*
Low 25th percentile* >
ADX(14) 14 day Average Directional Index (directional strength)
> 30 strong
30 > - weak
*measured against past 3 months
