-AUDCHF target at .8620
-AUDCAD support at .85; target at .9150
-AUDNZD nears top of range
Australian Dollar / Swiss Franc
Former support at .8620 and .8870 are bullish objectives. RSI is sneaking into overbought territory on the daily but trend structure is solidly bullish as long as price is above .8145.
Australian Dollar / Canadian Dollar
I wrote last week of “the risk of at least a corrective pullback. Watch the 200 day SMA for support as well as a former daily low at .8456.” A pullback has occurred and there may be some additional downside. Expect support from the confluence of Elliott channel support / 200 day SMA in the .8500/50 zone. A push above .8946 could complete a 5 wave rally from .7719 and lead to a top and reversal. .9150 (resistance from August 08) is a bullish objective.
Australian Dollar / New Zealand Dollar
Additional weakness is likely given that the advance from 1.0603 is in 5 waves and wave 5 of that advance is extended. 1.1632 is the bottom of the 4th wave and near the 50% of 1.0603-1.2954 at 1.1720, which is the target area. I wrote last week that “it is possible that the pair puts in a short term low (testing 200 day SMA) and trades back to 1.2579, albeit in a corrective manner.” The AUDNZD has exceeded 1.2579 but the rally still counts as a B wave. I favor additional weakness and a drop below 1.20 in the next several weeks.
Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday, GBP on Thursday, AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
Please send comments about this report to jsaettele@dailyfx.com
