-AUDCHF RSI above 70, price testing 200 day SMA
-AUCAD RSI above 70 since March 19
-AUDNZD structure bearish down to 1.16
Australian Dollar / Swiss Franc
I wrote last week that “a strong breakout rally is expected as long as price is above .7775. Former support at .8620 and .8870 are objectives.” The AUDCHF is on its way towards the mentioned objectives. Currently testing the 200 day SMA, a pullback could see price test the breakout line as support near 80.
Australian Dollar / Canadian Dollar
The AUDCAD has rallied through the 200 day SMA as well as the January high of .8695. RSI has been above 70 since March 19th. This warns that the pair is at risk of at least a corrective pullback. Watch the 200 day SMA for support as well as a former daily low at .8456.
Australian Dollar / New Zealand Dollar
Additional weakness is likely given that the advance from 1.0603 is in 5 waves and wave 5 of that advance is extended. 1.1632 is the bottom of the 4th wave and near the 50% of 1.0603-1.2954 at 1.1720, which is the target area. I wrote last week that “it is possible that the pair puts in a short term low (testing 200 day SMA) and trades back to 1.2579, albeit in a corrective manner.” The AUDNZD traded back to 1.2450 this week. A larger correction could test 1.2600/55 but it is best to favor the downside now given the impulsive decline from 1.2954.
Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday, GBP on Thursday, AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
Please send comments about this report to jsaettele@dailyfx.com
