1. AUDCAD
2. AUDJPY
3. AUDNZD
AUDCAD AUD/CAD has made a massive triple bottom with daily lows from 6/13 (.8142) , 6/21 (.8122) , and 6/29 (.8119). The triple bottom along with bullish divergence on the daily points to a turn in this pair. Favoring the bullish stance is the 78.6% fibo of the .7502-1.0546 April 2001 to February 2004 bull wave at .8156. CCI on the daily has crossed above 0 and MACD slope is positive. The hourly chart shows that a correction of the rally from .8119-.8310 has found support at the 38.2% fibo of that rally at .8237. Additional weakness probes the 50% and 61.8% fibos at .8214 and .8192.
AUDJPY AUD/JPY continues to hold above a short term supporting trendline that starts on 6/5 at 83.46. However, the hourly chart suggests that the rally from the 6/5 low at 83.46 may be nearing an end as the choppy rise has resulted in slight bearish divergence at the 50% fibo of 87.76-83.47 at 85.61. A push higher exposes the confluence of the 61.8% fibo / trendline from 12/6 high at 91.32 at 86.11. If todays 85.70 high holds as resistance, then Aussie Yen may head lower towards the 7/3 low of 84.77.
AUDNZD AUD/NZD has digested gains the past week and currently trades in a consolidating triangle. With the previous trend up, a break to the upside could challenge the 5/10 high at 1.2423. Initial resistance is at the 6/28 high of 1.2290. It is possible that the decline from 1.2423 to 1.1765 is the first of 3 corrective waves with the rally to 1.2290 as the second corrective wave. The argument for a top at 1.2290 is that the rally to 1.2290 reversed course at the 78.6% fibo of 1.2423-1.1764. If this is correct, then the path is down for a third corrective wave to at least 1.1633 (where wave 1 would equal wave 3).
Glossary of Terms
CCI(20) 20 day Commodity Channel Index
> 0 bullish
0 > bearish
> 100 extremely bullish
-100 > - extremely bearish
RSI(14) 14 day Relative Strength Index
> 50 bullish
50 > bearish
> 70 overbought
30 > - oversold
MACD ? - MACD slope (MACD MACD[1])
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
Mom(8) 8 day Momentum (shorter-term direction)
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
ATR(14) 14 day Average True Range (volatility)
Medium 75th percentile* > ATR(14) > 25th percentile*
High - > 75th percentile*
Low 25th percentile* >
ADX(14) 14 day Average Directional Index (directional strength)
> 30 strong
30 > - weak
*measured against past 3 months
