Although the World Trade Organization’s task is to free up trade and not political regimes, experts think that it will inject a dose of democracy into the authoritarian governments ruling most of the Arab world.
Officially, there are no political strings attached to membership of the WTO whose fourth ministerial conference is set to convene in an Arab country, Qatar, from November 9 to 13.
Arab countries, which have already joined the WTO or are vying to do so, will have nevertheless to expect political implications, says Brian Constant, director general of the Middle East Association, an independent umbrella group promoting British trade investment.
"Inevitably, membership in the WTO means that the private sector will have a greater role to play, and it follows automatically that the government will have a lesser role to play," he explains.
"As the private sector, industry and entrepreneurship have a greater effect on the economy, they will have a greater effect on the decision-making process of government, and it should lead to political liberalization."
But Constant predicts that Arab governments will resist such a transformation. "I think in the Arab countries there will be initially a great reluctance from the governments to have less control."
Egypt, which joined the WTO as early as 1995, is an example. The political landscape is pretty much the same with still no new significant party authorized since 1978.
An economics professor at the University of Cairo, Kamel Al-Said, says the social and political consequences of WTO membership will appear in the long term. He expects unemployment to increase when the state shuts down public companies and some industries disappear due to foreign competition.
Veteran Jordanian economist and newspaper commentator Fahd Faneq says democracy and free trade "normally go together". He points out that "democratic governments have a free economy and dictatorships in the world have a restricted economy."
WTO director general Mike Moore gave a hint in this direction, in a speech in June addressed to the Arab world ahead of the conference in the Qatari capital Doha. "Membership is a signal and a commitment to the rule of law and good governance," he said.
Arab states will benefit from the WTO because they will gain "new markets for their exporters" and because they will be able to "attract invaluable foreign investment and the new technologies that go with it," Moore added.
But here again experts think that Arabs will be pressed to engage in political reforms. "If you want more investments, you need to follow standards of transparency, predictability, accountability and rule of law," says Saudi Economist and Shura (consultative) Council member Ihsan Buhulaiga.
According to UN figures, Arab countries managed in 1999 to attract only nine billion dollars in direct foreign investments, the same amount as Africa. In comparison, Central and Eastern Europe drew $21 billion.
The Gulf region, the wealthiest in the Arab world, captured $5.4 billion, while its own investments elsewhere weigh around a massive $800 billion. And the investment picture is becoming worse after the September 11 terror attacks in the United States.
"Not one foreign investor showed up since," says Prince Abdullah bin Faisal Bin Turki Al-Saud, chairman of the General Investment Authority of Saudi Arabia, which has been trying to join the WTO since 1996.
Eleven of the 22 Arab League members have already joined: Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Tunisia and the United Arab Emirates. Five are candidates: Algeria, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia, Sudan and Yemen. ― (AFP, Dubai)
by Maher Chmaytelli
© Agence France Presse 2001
© 2001 Mena Report (www.menareport.com)
