-GBPCHF surges from lower end of range
-GBPCAD forming bullish base
-GBPAUD and GBPNZD may be resuming longer term downtrends
British Pound / Swiss Franc
The rally from the December low reached 1.75 and the advance is in 3 waves and fits as wave 4 within the 5 wave decline from the 2007 high. A drop below 1.5113 (December low) could occur in order to complete 5 waves down. It is also possible that the GBPCHF has entered into a longer term range in what ends up as a triangle or flat. There are too many possibilities right now to have confidence in direction.
British Pound / Canadian Dollar
The GBPCAD is preparing for an upside break through 1.84. The 1.6711-1.8418 advance is an impulse (5 waves), which is either wave A or 1 of an A-B-C advance or larger impulse (5 waves). Price has held the 50% of the rally from 1.6711. A drop below there would expose the 61.8% at 1.7344.
British Pound / Australian Dollar
The drop below the support line drawn off of the January 5th and 26th lows, the 200 day SMA and the 55 day SMA negates the previously held bullish bias. A resumption of the long term bear trend that began in 2001 is possible. Former support at 2.1680 is potential resistance.
British Pound / New Zealand Dollar
A multi-year triangle has been underway in the GBPNZD and recent weakness brings forth the possibility that the triangle is complete at 2.8968. Supporting a bearish bias at this point is price dropping below both the 55 and 200 day SMAs.
Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday, GBP on Thursday, AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
Please send comments about this report to jsaettele@dailyfx.com
