British Pound Crosses Stall

Published August 10th, 2006 - 03:42 GMT
Al Bawaba
Al Bawaba

1. GBPJPY
2. GPBCHF
3. GBPAUD

GBPJPY GBPJPY may be turning lower after printing its first red candle in 8 days yesterday.  Bearish divergence with CCI on the daily along with CCI crossing below 100 is compelling evidence of a turn.  The 161.8% fibo of 208.06-189.53 is at 219.48 not far below yesterdays high at 220.10.  Turning points often occur at such important Fibonacci relationships.  Support is at the 38.2% fibo of 212.93-220.10 at 217.36 as well as the confluence of the 50% fibo / 7/20 high at 216.53.  A push above yesterdays high (viewed as unlikely) would expose the 78.6% fibo of 240.96-148.29 at 220.96.


GBPCHF GBPCHF has stalled at the 78.6% fibo of 2.3912-2.1473 at 2.3387.  There is bearish divergence with CCI and CCI has dipped below 100 indicating possible weakness going forward.  However, the hourly shows a 3 wave correction from the 2.3412 high, which is suggestive of another leg up to at least test the 2.3412 high.  The 4/20/2004 high at 2.3489 would be potential resistance on a break above 2.3412.     


GBPAUD GBPAUD made a triple top with the 5/22 high and a series of highs from 6/2 to 6/7 with the 8/8 and 8/9 highs at 2.5139.  The pair has since plummeted to test the 2.4700 handle.  The decline has stalled at the 505 fibo of 2.4240-2.5142 at 2.4691.  Additional losses expose the 61.8% fibo at 2.4586.  Further, there is a supporting trendline originating from the 3/2 low at 2.3351 that comes in around 2.4350.  The severity of the decline over the last two days has left RSI on the hourly extremely oversold leaving open the possibility of a bounce in the short term.  Resistance is at the 8/9 low at 2.4843.