1. GBPJPY<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />
2. GBPCHF
3. GBPAUD
GBPJPY GBP/JPY continues to blast through resistance levels as the pair trades above 212.00. The next resistance level is the 12/13 high at 213.00 and a break beyond there could send the pair skyrocketing to the 138.2% or 161.8% fibos of the 213.00-200.51 bear wave at 217.70 or 220.66. Still, scope remains for a decline as each high in the pair is accompanied with lower oscillator values and thus negative divergence. The opportunity exists in either scenario (breakout or bounce lower off of resistance) to catch a large move with 213.00 as a useful point of reference.
GBPCHF GBP/CHF continues to range between 2.2915 and 2.2575. We mentioned last week that a bullish bias is reinforced by the hourly chart, which shows a double bottom at 2.2576/82 along with rising oscillators. The pair choppily rose above 2.2700 and currently is resisted by the 50% fibo of the 2.2915-2.2576 bear wave at 2.2746. The hourly chart also shows current price approaching a resisting trendline from the 5/19 high at 2.2915 along with hourly oscillators at the upper end of their ranges, suggesting that price is headed down towards the 2.2576 low on 6/5. Daily Bollinger bands are the tightest that they have been over a look-back period of 10 years, so probability of a breakout exists if we trade near the lower end of the daily range at 1.2576.
GBPAUD The decline in GBP/AUD from 2.5168 to 2.4549 looks like a 3 wave corrective move of the preceding move up from 2.3667 to 2.5124. This means that the rally from 6/9 low at 2.4549 could be the beginning of a new uptrend to fibo extensions of 2.3667-2.5124 at 2.6469 (138.2%) or 2.6816 (161.8%). Price must first challenge and break the 6/6 high though at 2.5168. Oscillators on the daily are rising and bullish again following the recent rally. The pair has corrected a bit off of yesterdays high 2.5048, opening up the door for a resumption of the move up towards the mentioned 6/6 high at 2.5168.
Glossary of Terms
CCI(20) 20 day Commodity Channel Index
> 0 bullish
0 > bearish
> 100 extremely bullish
-100 > - extremely bearish
RSI(14) 14 day Relative Strength Index
> 50 bullish
50 > bearish
> 70 overbought
30 > - oversold
MACD ? - MACD slope (MACD MACD[1])
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
Mom(8) 8 day Momentum (shorter-term direction)
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
ATR(14) 14 day <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />AverageTrueRange (volatility)
Medium 75th percentile* > ATR(14) > 25th percentile*
High - > 75th percentile*
Low 25th percentile* >
ADX(14) 14 day Average Directional Index (directional strength)
> 30 strong
30 > - weak
*measured against past 3 months
