Latest CFTC Release Dated January 01, 2008:
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The COT Index is the percentile of the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured over the last 52 weeks. A reading close to 0 suggests that a bottom is forming and a reading close to 100 suggests that a top is forming. The readings are for the actual currency, not the currency pair. For example, a reading of 100 on the Canadian Dollar suggests that the Canadian Dollar is close to a top (USDCAD close to a bottom).
13 Week COT Index: see description just below the COT Index table
US Dollar Index: The % of total commercial positions that are long measured through a 52 week percentile is at 10 and the % of total speculative positions that are long measured through a 52 week percentile is at 88. The 52 week COT index has rolled over from 100 and is at 86. USD should continue to decline.
Signal: Bearish
EUR: The % of total commercial positions that are long measured through a 52 week percentile is at 86 and the % of total speculative positions that are long measured through a 52 week percentile is at 4. The 52 week index appears to have bottomed at 0 and had turned up and is now at 4. Conditions are bullish for the Euro.
Signal: Bullish
GBP: The % of total commercial positions that are long measured through a 52 week percentile is at 96 and the % of total speculative positions that are long measured through a 52 week percentile is at 0. Cable is at a bearish sentiment extreme and should bottom very soon (maybe this week).
Signal: Forming a bottom
CHF: The % of total commercial positions that are long measured through a 52 week percentile is at 24 and the % of total speculative positions that are long measured through a 52 week percentile is 69. The most recent extreme registered on the 52 week index was a bullish one but the most recent extreme registered on the 13 week index was a bearish one. With momentum towards CHF strength intact, remain bullish on CHF until further notice (bearish USDCHF).
JPY: The % of total commercial positions that are long measured through a 52 week percentile is at 20 and the % of total speculative positions that are long measured through a 52 week percentile is at 77. sentiment regarding the JPY has turned from a bullish extreme so favor the downside.
Signal: Bearish
CAD: The % of total commercial positions that are long measured through a 52 week percentile is at 35 and the % of total speculative positions that are long measured through a 52 week percentile is at 49. The 52 week measure is trending down, indicating that the larger trend is down.
AUD: The % of total commercial positions that are long measured through a 52 week percentile is at 75 and the % of total speculative positions that are long measured through a 52 week percentile is at 20. The 52 and 13 week COT indices are at 8 and 17. All indicators are turning from close to bearish extremes, so favor the upside.
Signal: Bullish
NZD: The % of total commercial positions that are long measured through a 52 week percentile is at 22 and the % of total speculative positions that are long measured through a 52 week percentile is at 31. The 52 and 13 week COT indices are at 41 and 67. COT information warrants a cautious bullish stance since the indices are trending up.
Signal: Neutral
