Canadian Dollar Trade Opportunity Next Week

The USDCAD ended the week with a bang.  The pair rallied nearly 200 pips in an 8 hour period that began at 6 a.m. EST.  Such movements are indicative of a highly emotional environment; and where there is emotion lies opportunity.  We believe that a clear Elliott Wave pattern will come to a completion early next week and present a high probability trade setup.

The decline from 1.0378 is clearly a 5 wave decline, which indicates additonal bearish potential.  As is evident in the Daily Technicals, we had originally though that an a-b-c corrective rally was complete at 1.0128.  As the pattern has progressed, it seems probable that 1.0128 will be exceeded and that the USDCAD will complete a larger more complex correction (W-X-Y) closer to 1.0175/84.  1.0175 is where wave Y would equal wave W; a common relationship.  1.0184 is the 61.8% of 1.0378-.9871; another common relationship among A and B or 1st and 2nd waves.  Therefore, look to short close to 1.0075/84 early next, against 1.0378.  The target is below .9871 and probably below .9755.  Be sure to visit the Elliott Wave forum for trading ideas and updates to this pattern.