TS Eliot once wrote that April is the cruelest month, but for dollar bulls that month may well have been November. The currency melted against losing 500 points against the euro and 700 points against the pound under the constant bombardment of bad data. Going forward there is little evidence that fundamentals will improve for the greenback, and although the unit is grossly oversold, seasonality is not on its side. Over the past 20 years, historical analysis indicates that from December 1st to December 31st, the euro appreciated against the U.S. dollar 15 out of 20 times.
