Crude Oil Outlook Bullish But Key Factors to Watch

Published May 20th, 2009 - 01:36 GMT
Al Bawaba
Al Bawaba

Index Strat Risk Target
Oil Flat     
Gold    Flat     
Silver Flat     


Long-Term Technical Forecast for Crude Oil


Recent commentary has been that “a possible wave count is an expanded flat, which would require a push above 59.66.”  The wave count described is no longer possible but probable as crude is about to exceed 59.66.  Although the minimum for wave C is just above 59.66, crude could soar as high as 71.33, which is the 161.8% extension of wave i of C.

Short-Term Forecast for Crude Oil



Long-Term Technical Forecast for Gold


Gold is oscillating between the 55 and 200 SMAs.  Structure since the top at 1034 is a mess, which means that an expanded flat is probably underway.  Under this count, Gold would make an unorthodox top above 1034 in wave B of the flat prior to crashing (below) 681 in wave C.  

Short-Term Forecast for Gold



Long-Term Technical Forecast for Silver


Silver’s waves are quite clear.  The drop from the March 2008 high to the October 2008 low was in 5 waves, indicating that any subsequent rally should prove corrective.  The rally from 8.65 was corrective but the decline from 14.63 was also corrective.  As such, it is likely that a complex correction is underway towards an extension at either 16.08 or as high as 19.5.

Short-Term Forecast for Silver