Currency Crosses: Trading Beyond Majors

1.      EURAUD<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />

2.      EURCAD

3.     EURNZD

EURAUD EUR/AUD naturally looks very similar to GBP/AUD and the pair has rallied significantly off of the low on 5/26 at 1.6764.  The pair is rapidly approaching a double top from 3/27 and 5/22 highs of 1.7112 and 1.7113.  A break above there exposes the 78.6% fibo of 1.7683-1.5527 at 1.7219.  The daily chart construction appears to be in a 3^rd wave of a larger 5^th wave right now, which produces a bullish bias.  A shorter term look favors some digestion of recent strength as negative divergence with oscillators is apparent on the hourly.    

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EURCAD EUR/CAD has consolidated in a symmetrical triangle on the hourly after plummeting from 1.4450 to below 1.4100 since 5/24.  A break below the triangle near 1.4070 exposes the 50% fibo of 1.3494-1.4453 at 1.3973.Daily oscillators are overwhelmingly bearish as MACD slope is negative and MACD is about to cross below 0.  21 period RSI just crossed below its midpoint of 50, suggesting that there may be plenty of move left to the downside.  The 200 day SMA is not far below for support at 1.4031.    

EURNZD After declining to below 2.0000, EUR/NZD found support at the 61.8% fibo of 1.9331-2.0837 at 1.9908 and has since rallied back to 2.0200.  It looks though like a 5 wave bullish sequence ended at 2.0834 on 5/15 and that we are now in corrective mode, thus presenting us with a bearish bias.  The current rally has stalled at the 38.2% fibo of 2.0812-1.9898 at 2.0246 and hourly oscillators again point lower and favor shorts.  Further, daily oscillators are declining and the 10 day SMA has declined below the 20 day SMA fro the first time since May 3.  Initial support is at yesterdays low of 2.0021.                

Glossary of Terms

CCI(20) 20 day Commodity Channel Index

> 0 bullish

0 > bearish

> 100 extremely bullish

-100 > - extremely bearish                                                   

RSI(21) 21 day Relative Strength Index

> 50 bullish

50 > bearish

> 70 overbought

30 > - oversold

MACD ? - MACD slope (MACD MACD[1])

> 0 bullish

0 > - bearish

Mom(8) 8 day Momentum (shorter-term direction)

> 0 bullish

0 > - bearish

ATR(14) 14 day <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />AverageTrueRange (volatility)

Medium 75th percentile* > ATR(14) > 25th percentile*

High - > 75th percentile*

Low 25th percentile* >

ADX(14) 14 day Average Directional Index (directional strength)

> 30 strong

30 > - weak

*measured against past 3 months

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