As defined by the World Energy Council (WEC) and others, the term petroleum includes gaseous, liquid as well as solid hydrocarbons (HC).
The most important, as commercial energy, are oil and natural gas.
Oil and natural gas resources are classified under the headings of both ``conventional' and`` unconventional' resources.
Unconventional oil resources include oil shale, tar sands and heavy crude, while unconventional gas resources include gas in: tight formations, geo-pressurized aquifers and coal seams, in addition to gas hydrates.
Estimates of petroleum resources vary from one author to another. However, all authors agree that the progression toward scarcity of conventional HC resources did not proceed along the lines perceived in the early 1970s.
Today the majority believe that technological and economic developments will continue to boost estimates of the ultimate recoverable resources (URR).
On the other hand, some researchers are worried by the widening gap between the addition to resources and the levels of production during recent years, where additions to reserves have not kept up with the increased production.
This group advocates caution with regard to accepting the more optimistic forecasts pertaining to the economic availability of oil and gas in the long run.
The rate of depletion of HC resources depends on several factors.
The main three are:
- The resource base and its development.
- Technological developments.
- Consumption growth.
Each of these factors are in turn affected by other factors. The sum total of their impact determines the economic life span of the HC resources in question.
In this paper, the author will endeavor to discuss several of the available scenarios for resources estimates and future consumption, with the objective of formulating some ideas about the timing of HC depletion.
Source:OAPEC.org.
Dr. Mohammad Mukhtar Al-Lababidi
© 2000 Mena Report (www.menareport.com)
