The EURUSD has fallen over 200 pips from its high, which makes a strong case for a much larger turn.
For a detailed look at the EURUSD, please visit our Special Report, just published yesterday. The EURUSD has either topped at 1.5983 or will make one more high before rolling over into a large 4th wave that will last a few months and probably bring the pair back into the 1.40s. The two scenarios are; 1.5983 completed a B wave (already topped), 1.5983 is wave iii within an ending diagonal. A drop in 5 waves from 1.5983 would confirm that the EURUSD has topped.
Visit our recently updated Euro Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
The USDJPY blew through 102.95, negating the bearish bias and our idea that a 4th wave was complete. If a 4th wave is nearing completion, then the USDJPY must remain below 107.20 (the bottom of wave 1 of the same degree). There is potential resistance from the 1/23 low at 104.95 and the rally from 98.56 equals the 95.72-102.95 rally at 103.88 (in which case the rally from 95.72 would be a double zigzag).
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Our longer term bias remains bearish but the GBPUSD may continue to bounce over the next few days. The drop from 2.0396 may be a leading diagonal as wave 1 of C (within the A-B-C decline from 2.1160). Under this interpretation, the GBPUSD rally from 1.9599 is wave 2 within the 5 wave drop (wave C) from 2.0396. The pair failed this morning at the 50% of 2.0396-1.9599 at 1.9998; which may be the top of wave 2.
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STRATEGY: Bearish, against 1.9997, target below 1.9337
The rally through 1.0249 confirms that the C wave we had suspected was underway is underway. The 100% extension of .9647-1.0249/.9871 at 1.0473 is an initial bullish objective. Short term supports are at 1.0215, 1.0200 and 1.0157.
“The rally from .9710 to 1.0324 is in 5 waves, confirming that the larger trend is up. We are treating the decline from 1.0324 as a 3 wave correction (a-b-c). Wave c would equal wave a at .9967 and the 61.8% of .9710-1.0324 is at .9945. Yesterday’s low was just above this level and may be the wave 2 low. A bullish bias is warranted against .9710 although price ideally remains above .9987.
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STRATEGY: Bullish, against .9710, target above 1.0324
The NZDUSD has held above trendline support so far, but a break of .7781 would likely give way to a price smash. We have been sitting with a short term bullish bias but are abandoning that now due to the possible triangle in the AUDUSD and topping process in the EURUSD. Also, our longer term count calls for a C wave that eventually ends below .5927.
STRATEGY: Sell break of .7781, against .8024, target TBD
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[1] STRATEGY is a summary of our best technical ideas. The ideas are subjective and are subject to change everyday although trades are typically held for at least a few days and sometimes a few weeks or more. Ideas are also included for crosses throughout the week; these are published at separate articles at DailyFX.
