The EURUSD spiked through 1.60 but is trading 100 pips lower than the 1.6018 high. A drop below 1.5712 would confirm that a top is in place at 1.6018 and that a EURUSD correction that brings price back into the 1.40s is underway. A 3rd wave that is expected to break 1.0324 is underway in the USDCAD.
See yesterday's chart for the count from late last year. The rally from 1.5342 is wave v. Wave v (unfolding as a diagonal) would equal wave i at 1.5953. Obviously, the high has exceeded this measurement It is possible to count 5 waves in a diagonal from 1.5342 to 1.6018 with the last leg of the diagonal stopping near the line that connects the tops of wave i and iii of the diagonal, so a top may be in place. Coming under 1.5712 would confirm that a top is in place. Be sure to check DailyFX + for alerts.
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The best count for the USDJPY from 95.72 is a double zigzag (a-b-c-X-a-b-c). With the second zigzag close to equal with the first zigzag, a bearish bias is warranted against 104.64. Those with a longer term horizon can keep risk above 107.20. The rally from 95.72 is a 4th wave within the 5 wave drop from 114.65 and the objective is below 95.72.
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STRATEGY: Bearish, against 104.64, target below 95.72
We are treating the drop from 2.0396 as a leading diagonal (wave 1 of C within the A-B-C decline from 2.1160). Under this interpretation, the GBPUSD rally from 1.9599 is wave 2 within the 5 wave drop (wave C) from 2.0396. With the rally to 2.0025 in 3 waves and with waves i and ii of the next leg down possibly complete at 1.9997, a bearish bias is warranted against that level.
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STRATEGY: Bearish, against 1.9997, target below 1.9337
It is very possible that a corrective advance is complete at 1.0283 and that the USDCHF is headed to fresh lows. This view is now favored as long as 1.0283 is intact because the decline from there is impulsive (on very short term charts). Short term resistance is in the 1.0150/1.0200 zone. However, the decline from 1.0283 is not clear therefore we are standing down from a strong bearish bias.
“The rally from .9710 to 1.0324 is in 5 waves, confirming that the larger trend is up. We are treating the decline from 1.0324 as a 3 wave correction (a-b-c). Wave c would equal wave a at .9967 and the 61.8% of .9710-1.0324 is at .9945. Yesterday’s low was just above this level and may be the wave 2 low. The strong rally this morning is a strong sign that wave 3 is underway towards a break of 1.0324. Risk can be moved to .9987
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STRATEGY: Bullish, against .9987, target above 1.0324
The NZDUSD has exceeded .8024 as expected. This may complete an A-B-C rally from .7781. Remember, our focus is on the support line that dates to August 2007. Our longer term bias is that a large wave B of an expanded flat is complete at.8215 and that the NZDUSD is headed lower in a C wave that will eventually drop below .5927.
STRATEGY: Bearish, against .8101, target below .7781
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[1] STRATEGY is a summary of our best technical ideas. The ideas are subjective and are subject to change everyday although trades are typically held for at least a few days and sometimes a few weeks or more. Ideas are also included for crosses throughout the week; these are published at separate articles at DailyFX.
