· Euro At Projected Trendline<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />
· Japanese Yen Challenges 117.00
· British Pound Breaks 1.8200
· Swiss Franc Protects 1.2500
· Canadian Dollar Continues To Range
· Australian Dollar Down 6 Weeks In a Row
· <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />New Zealand Dollar Closing In On .6000
EUR/USD EUR/USD pierced the 1.2500 handle and found support at 1.2480, just below a trendline that began on 2/27 at 1.1825. This line is parallel to a line that connects the 1/24 (1.2321) and 5/15 highs (1.2971). If support holds, then a well defined channel is established and the picture is bullish. Still, a break below the supporting trendline encounters the 50% fibo of 1.1825-1.2971 at 1.2397. Wave structure favors the downside as the decline from 1.2976 appears to be the C wave in a 3 wave (A-B-C) correction of the rise to 1.2971. Potential resistance at the psychological 1.2600 figure is reinforced by a short term trendline (that began at the 6/5 high at 1.2976) and the 61.8% fibo of 1.2678-1.2480 at 1.2602. <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />
USD/JPY USD/JPY continues to hold above the 116.00 figure and yesterdays high was just short of the 78.6% fibo of 118.87-108.96 at 116.72. The pair has broken above the 200 day SMA, which is now support at 116.02. RSI on the hourly is declining from above 70 after bearish divergence and a break below 116.02 could test the 6/19 high at 115.75. A break above the mentioned 78.6% fibo at 116.72 could send the pair towards 118.37, where wave 5 (starting at 114.38) would equal wave 1 (108.96-112.96).
GBP/USD Cable has rallied off of Fridays low at 1.8132 but scope remains for more weakness. As we have focused on with the majors, the dollar rally is far more impulsive than the anti-dollar rally and additional dollar strength could take us to some of our measured objectives. In Cables case, the 161.8% extension of 1.9025-1.8529 from 1.8879 comes in at 1.8067 (1.8879 (1.618 * (1.9025-1.8529)) and a decline to that level could mark the end of a 3 wave correction of the rise to 1.9025.
USD/CHF USD/CHF broke above the top of a recent range bound by the 5/2 and 6/20 highs at 1.2435/47. Recently overbought RSI on the hourly is no longer and is actually nearing 30 following a 100 pips decline from Fridays high. Fibonacci extensions of 1.1919-1.2299 place targets for a potential top at 1.2541 (138.2% - very close to Fridays high of 1.2525) and 1.2629 (161.8%). The proximity of Fridays high to the 1.2541 target as well as the fact that the high reversed at the upper Bollinger band on the daily both open up the possibility that a top is already in place. A sustained break below the 1.2335/47 (former resistance) area would reinforce this opinion.
USD/CAD The highly touted 1.1250 area was broken briefly but USD/CAD was rejected before 1.1300. Like USD/CHF, Fridays high reversed off of the upper Bollinger band on the daily which when combined with the series of daily highs at 1.1250/64 and the 38.2% fibo of 1.1771-1.0927 at 1.1245 suggests that the path of least resistance is down. This holds unless the 1.1284 high is broken to the upside. In that event, the 50% fibo of 1.1771-1.0927 at 1.1346 would serve as resistance. The immediate picture appears slightly bearish as hourly oscillators are falling.
AUD/USD The Aussie decline has stalled at the 61.8% fibo of .7014-.7791 at .7311, resulting in bullish divergence among prices and oscillators on the hourly. This suggests at least a bounce in the short term. Last week was the 6th week in a row that the pair fell. The last time we had 6 red weekly candles was in July 2001 when the pair was bottoming near the .4800-.5000 area. Momentum and CCI on the daily show slight bullish divergence but is not confirmed by either MACD or RSI. A break below .7300 could see an assault on the 78.6% fibo of .7013-.7791 at .7180.
NZD/USD Kiwi continues to fall like a soccer player when a defender comes within 3 feet of him. As we have mentioned for the past couple of days, the next areas of support would be the 4/4 low at .6012 and the 3/29 low at .5991. The 10 day SMA has held as resistance the past week and currently is at .6231 but more immediate resistance is at the high from today at .6088. Positive divergence with oscillators on the hourly gives scope to a bounce but the path of least resistance remains down. A break of the 3/29 low at .5991 could see a test of the 5/18/2004 low at .5909.
Glossary of Terms
CCI(20) 20 day Commodity Channel Index
> 0 bullish
0 > bearish
> 100 extremely bullish
-100 > - extremely bearish
RSI(14) 14 day Relative Strength Index
> 50 bullish
50 > bearish
> 70 overbought
30 > - oversold
MACD ? - MACD slope (MACD MACD[1])
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
Mom(8) 8 day Momentum (shorter-term direction)
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
ATR(14) 14 day <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />AverageTrueRange (volatility)
Medium 75th percentile* > ATR(14) > 25th percentile*
High - > 75th percentile*
Low 25th percentile* >
ADX(14) 14 day Average Directional Index (directional strength)
> 30 strong
30 > - weak
*measured against past 3 months
