Euro sell recommendation issued for Tuesday only. Dollar/Yen well supported by Ichimoku cloud top. Cable confined to inside day price action. Dollar/Swiss pullbacks seen limited. Dollar/Cad price action constructive; favors additional upside. Australian Dollar shows good follow through from bearish outside day. New Zealand Dollar consolidates ahead of next drop.
EUR/USD
| EUR/USD – The market has been trading in a bear channel since topping out by 1.3740 back on 19Mar with the latest rally once again stalling out by the channel top ahead of the current pullback. The overall structure is grossly bearish and favors additional medium-term weakness in to the low 1.2000’s over the coming days/weeks. For now, look for a lower top by 1.3300 ahead of a fresh downside extension below 1.2885 over the coming sessions. Only back above 1.3300 concerns. Strategy: SELL @1.3145 FOR A 1.2885 OBJECTIVE, STOP @1.3265. Stops to be trailed to cost on a break back below 1.3100. If trade triggers and 1.3100 not broken, position to be closed out at NY close (5pm NY time) on Tuesday. Recommendation to be removed if not triggered by NY close on Tuesday. | | Level | Resistance | Details | | 1.3300 | R3 | 4/24 high | | 1.3255 | R2 | 4/27 high | | 1.3150 | R1 | Mid-Figure | | Level | Support | Details | | 1.3000 | S1 | 4/27 low | | 1.2965 | S2 | 4/28 low | | 1.2885 | S3 | 4/22 low |
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USD/JPY
| USD/JPY – Setbacks have continued into Tuesday with the market reaching 95.60 ahead of the latest minor bounce. However, the market has been well supported in the mid 95.00’s and this in conjunction with the first test of Ichimoku cloud support since breaking out back in February, bodes well for a decent rebound from here. Look for a higher low to carve out by 95.60 ahead of fresh upside in the days ahead. A break back above 97.30 will confirm. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL. | | Level | Resistance | Details | | 98.45 | R3 | 4/23 high | | 98.15 | R2 | 4/24 high | | 97.30 | R1 | 4/27 high | | Level | Support | Details | | 95.60 | S1 | 4/28 low | | 95.00 | S2 | Psychological | | 94.60 | S3 | 1/6 high |
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GBP/USD
GBP/USD – No reason to be taking positions at current levels with the market caught in the middle of a very choppy range. Our bias however is for an eventual resumption of the broader downtrend to be confirmed on a break back below 1.4395 which should then open a fresh downside extension exposing next key support by 1.4110 (30Mar low). Any rallies should be well capped below 1.4820, but only a sustained break back above 1.5000 would be required to shift outlook. In the interim, expect 1.4775 to cap short-term rallies. The market looks to be putting in an inside-day on Tuesday. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
| | Level | Resistance | Details | | 1.4820 | R3 | 4/20 high | | 1.4775 | R2 | 4/24 high | | 1.4695 | R1 | 4/27 high | | Level | Support | Details | | 1.4515 | S1 | 4/27 low | | 1.4500 | S2 | Psychological | | 1.4395 | S3 | 4/22 low |
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USD/CHF
| USD/CHF – Although the recent pullback has been quite severe, with the market trading from 1.1740 down 1.1350 on Friday, our outlook remains constructive with the pair testing some rising trend-line support, and the 200-Day SMA which has proved to be a formidable buoy. A series of higher highs and higher lows over the past several weeks leaves us projecting yet another higher low by 1.1350 ahead of the next upside extension back above 1.1740. Position: LONG @1.1400 FOR A 1.1740 OBJECTIVE, REVISED STOP @1.1400. | | Level | Resistance | Details | | 1.1740 | R3 | 4/20 high | | 1.1675 | R2 | 4/23 high | | 1.1605 | R1 | 4/27 high | | Level | |
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