The year 2001 does not offer an inviting face to Jordan, with economic challenges and regional instability threatening social unrest. "The situation has never been as critical and the atmosphere is ripe for social troubles," a former Jordanian prime minister, who wished to remain anonymous, told AFP.
"Political frustrations are at their height because of the Palestinian intifada (the uprising against Israeli rule), while Jordan, which has already suffered recession for the last three years, will experience inflation at the beginning of 2001."
Two measures, he said, will have a direct effect upon Jordanians' daily life: the expansion of a 13 percent tax, which until now has been applied only to non-essential items, and a hike in gas (petrol) prices.
It is another blow to the wallet in a country where people struggle to earn a daily wage. Currently, the nation's unemployment level is estimated at 27 percent while half of Jordanians get less than $1,200 a year and nearly 30 percent only earn $800.
But Foreign Minister Abdel Ilah al-Khatib downplays the explosiveness of the situation. "We have all the confidence in the wisdom of our leadership and the understanding of the people. We have passed through more difficult times and managed always to emerge stronger and better," he said.
Economist Fahed Fanek explains that the rise in fuel prices, announced by Prime Minister Ali Abu Ragheb at the end of November, was "inevitable". At the time, Abu Ragheb announced the hike in oil prices to keep Jordan's budget deficit at six percent as a condition for receiving loans from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Even with the preferential oil prices granted to Jordan by Iraq, Amman faces an additional fuel bill of $220 million, which must be covered, Fanek added.
Officials also defend the country's new tax policy as both fair and necessary. The higher taxation will not "upset the social fabric," says Iyad al-Qudah, the overseer of Jordan's new tax plan.
In 1989 riots erupted after the government-imposed price rises on basic goods and services and in 1996 a doubling in the bread price as part of an IMF-supervised economic plan again caused fierce rioting across the country.
Qudah said that the expanded 13 percent tax will only affect businesses that earn more than $350,000 per year, while generating an extra $28 million for Jordan's national budget.
While the effect of the country's economic policies remains to be seen, its continued relations with Israel amid the Palestinian intifada, which has been going on since September 28, cause almost unanimous hostility.
In a country where close to half of the five million population is of Palestinian descent the fighting in the Palestinian territories has made Jordanians call into question the validity of their 1994 peace treaty with Israel.
"For the first time, the Palestinian in the refugee camp and the Jordanian villager are united in their complaints, one over the intifada and the other due to widespread poverty," an anonymous Jordanian official told AFP.
This frustration has played to the advantage of opposition parties, most notably the Islamists and the professional syndicates. These groups have demanded the closing of the Israeli embassy in Jordan. Even supporters of normalization with Israel have joined the appeals for a reevaluation of Jordan's relationship with the Jewish state.
Parliament deputy Hamedeh Farawneh, who has often been criticized for his conciliatory gestures towards Israel, has presented, along with 13 others, a petition demanding the revision of the 1994 peace treaty, with a view to annulling the agreement.
The official said that Jordan was trying to appease popular sentiment by working towards breaking down the UN economic sanctions against Iraq, which has majority approval. But he warned that the government "has few cards to play". "It must handle a heavy legacy of economic problems while coping with regional instability, and still try to satisfy popular demands," the official said. — (AFP, RAmman)
by Randa Habib
© Agence France Presse 2000
© 2000 Mena Report (www.menareport.com)
