The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical arm of the Department of Energy (DOE), said on March 28th that world oil demand is expected to climb by 56 percent or 43 million b/d, over the coming two decades largely due to strong demand for transportation fuels.
The agency indicated in its annual international energy forecast that world supplies will keep pace with demand, with the actual cost of oil falling from about $28 a barrel now to about $22 a barrel in 2020.
The EIA estimates that global oil demand will rise to 119.6 million b/d in 2020 from about 77 million b/d this year, while production is expected to climb to 119.3 million b/d in 2020 from about 78 million b/d in 2001.
Production capacity is expected to soar to 122.4 million b/d in two decades, with OPEC increasing its market share to 50 percent, or 59.3 million b/d, in 2020 from about 40 percent currently.
Non-OPEC supply will receive a boost from production from the Caspian Basin and West Africa.
U.S. oil demand is expected to increase from 20 million b/d to 26 million b/d, while the largest rise in oil demand is expected to come from developing Asian countries, which will account for more than a third of the increase in global oil consumption over the next 20 years.
In all industrialized nations, oil use is projected to increase predominantly in the transportation sector, where there are currently no alternative fuels to compete with oil products.
The agency is forecasting a decline in oil use for electricity generation, with other fuels, mostly natural gas, becoming viable and favored alternatives.
© 2001 Mena Report (www.menareport.com)