1. EURAUD
2. EURCAD
3. EURNZD
EURAUD EURAUD trades just above a supporting trendline from 1.5609 (12/06/2005 low). This line is at 1.6673. A break below there would favor bears. Also, a 6 month head and shoulders has formed. A break below the neckline just above the 1.6600 figure completes the pattern and could lead to a big decline. Price is just below the confluence of the 10 / 20 day SMAs at 1.6781/97 which is immediate resistance. A resisting trendline from 1.7352 is currently at 1.7015 and a only a push above there negates the bearish bias.
EURCAD EURCAD has ranged primarily between 1.4100 and 1.4275 the last week. The daily chart shows a rising wedge from the 1.3495 low on 2/28. It appears that a 5th wave within the wedge is nearing completion. The support line is at 1.4031 (current price at 1.4165) and a break below supports the case for an eventual re-test of 1.3495. In fact, the longer term picture shows that we the pair is in a 5 wave bear sequence from the 2004 high at 1.6374. This aforementioned wedge is the 4th wave (corrective). What remains then is a 5th wave to complete the bearish pattern that ultimately makes a new low below 1.3495 (keep in mind that this analysis is longer term). Daily CCI is below -100 so a bounce is probable in the short term. Initial resistance is at the 8/31 high at 1.4275 followed by the 8/21 high at 1.4477.
EURNZD EURNZD has completed a head and shoulders pattern after breaking below the neckline on 8/29. The decline has stalled at a support zone from congestion stemming from the 4/13 to 4/24 trading range (1.9400-1.9700). With RSI rising from below 30, a corrective move higher is likely. H&S patterns often see price come back to test the neckline as resistance. In this case, the neckline converges with a resisting trendline (from the 7/7 high at 2.1172) on 9/20 at about 1.9990. A correction could end in that area (if one takes place) and then give way to the downtrend.
Table
CCI(20) 20 day Commodity Channel Index
> 0 bullish
0 > bearish
> 100 extremely bullish
-100 > - extremely bearish
RSI(14) 14 day Relative Strength Index
> 50 bullish
50 > bearish
> 70 overbought
30 > - oversold
MACD ? - MACD slope (MACD MACD[1])
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
Mom(8) 8 day Momentum (shorter-term direction)
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
ATR(14) 14 day Average True Range (volatility)
Medium 75th percentile* > ATR(14) > 25th percentile*
High - > 75th percentile*
Low 25th percentile* >
ADX(14) 14 day Average Directional Index (directional strength)
> 30 strong
30 > - weak
*measured against past 3 months
