Euro Commodity Crosses Mixed

1.  EURAUD
2.  EURCAD
3.  EURNZD

EURAUD EUR/AUD has decline the past two days after a choppy rally sent the pair to 1.7250 two days ago.  The pair is at support from the confluence of the 38.2% fibo of 1.6810-1.7247 / 20 day SMA at 1.7081/1.7102.  A longer term trendline that began on 5/4 at 1.6364 sits as support at 1.7036.  A resisting trendline from October 1998 (using synthetic prices until 1999) limits upside potential at around 1.7300.  A break above there exposes the 6/6 high at 1.7352.  Declining oscillators on the daily and hourly favor bears if the pair break below the 38.2% fibo at 1.7081.                   

EURCAD Extraordinary long wicks below bodies of the daily candles in the past week, especially yesterday, suggest that support is strong to 1.4053 (6/29 low).  Additional strength from todays rally probes the 6/26 high at 1.4158 as well as the 61.8% fibo of 1.4454-1.3796 at 1.4202 (which is reinforced by a long term trendline dating to February 2005).  The pair is at a crossroads and trading has been choppy for the last few weeks.  The picture was far more bearish a few weeks ago on the break of a short term trendline but supporting the bullish case is a positive 20, 40 weekly SMA cross.          

EURNZD Massive bearish divergence with oscillators on the daily has preceded the 300 pip decline from the 6/28 high at 2.1177.  The nearly 7 month rally from the December 2005 low of 1.6326 may be over as the move is 5 waves up.  Further, the fist wave of this sequence would be from 1.6326 to 1.8168, which is 1,842 pips.  A property often seen in wave analysis is the equality of waves 1 and 5.  With wave 5 beginning at 4/13 low of 1.9336, an estimated terminus for wave 5 would be 1.9336 + .1842 (1,842 pips) or 2.1178.  The high on Wednesday was 2.1177.  This combined with the mentioned bearish divergence is strong evidence for a continued decline.  The break of a short term trendline on the hourly (beginning on 6/20) also points to a bearish scenario.  A bounce should be expected though with oversold short term conditions.  Resistance is at the 50% and 61.8% fibos of 2.1177-2.0723 at 2.0950 and 2.1002.  

Glossary of Terms

CCI(20) 20 day Commodity Channel Index

> 0 bullish

0 > bearish

> 100 extremely bullish

-100 > - extremely bearish                                                   

RSI(14) 14 day Relative Strength Index

> 50 bullish

50 > bearish

> 70 overbought

30 > - oversold

MACD ? - MACD slope (MACD MACD[1])

> 0 bullish

0 > - bearish

Mom(8) 8 day Momentum (shorter-term direction)

> 0 bullish

0 > - bearish

ATR(14) 14 dayAverageTrueRange (volatility)

Medium 75th percentile* > ATR(14) > 25th percentile*

High - > 75th percentile*

Low 25th percentile* >

ADX(14) 14 day Average Directional Index (directional strength)

> 30 strong

30 > - weak

*measured against past 3 months

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