Euro Commodity Crosses Top Out

Published March 16th, 2007 - 07:19 GMT
Al Bawaba
Al Bawaba

1. EURAUD
2. EURCAD
3. EURNZD


EURAUD The long term trend, as indicated by the nearly 9 year trendline, is down.  The long term triangle offers the best perspective.  Price should come down to test 1.6304 in the E wave of the triangle (triangles have 5 waves A thru E).  Bolstering the shorter term bear argument is that price has slipped below a support line drawn off of the 1/18 and 2/27 lows.  The next support level is the 2/22 low at 1.6575.  1.6930 (3/14 high) should remain solid resistance.              

Key Levels & Technical Indicators

EURCAD The EURCAD has broken the upside and tested the 61.8% of 1.6974-1.3497 at 1.5641 today.  However, there is still the possibility that the pair is at a major top.  A 9 year trendline is at about 1.5800 and decreases roughly 10 pips per day.  Bolstering the topping scenario is bearish divergence with RSI on the weekly chart?.this is a rare and powerful signal.  Again, these signals are on the weekly chart and the trendline is not for another 200 pips, but this is something to watch.     

Key Levels & Technical Indicators

EURCAD The EURCAD has broken the upside and tested the 61.8% of 1.6974-1.3497 at 1.5641 today.  However, there is still the possibility that the pair is at a major top.  A 9 year trendline is at about 1.5800 and decreases roughly 10 pips per day.  Bolstering the topping scenario is bearish divergence with RSI on the weekly chart?.this is a rare and powerful signal.  Again, these signals are on the weekly chart and the trendline is not for another 200 pips, but this is something to watch.     

Key Levels & Technical Indicators



Table

CCI(20) 21 day Commodity Channel Index
> 0 bullish
0 > bearish
> 100 extremely bullish
-100 > - extremely bearish 

RSI(14) 14 day Relative Strength Index

> 50 bullish
50 > bearish
> 70 overbought
30 > - oversold

MACD ? - MACD slope (MACD MACD[1])
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish

Mom(21) 21 day Momentum

> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish

ATR(14) 14 day Average True Range (volatility)

Medium 75th percentile* > ATR(14) > 25th percentile*
High - > 75th percentile*
Low 25th percentile* >

*measured against past 3 months