1. EURJPY
2. EURCHF
3. EURGBP
EURJPY The EURJPY has nearly retraced the entire 158.04-153.66 decline. 158.04 is the level to watch as a push through there gives scope to an eventual test of the 1998 synthetic high at 164.53. It remains our contention that 153.66 marks the bottom of a wave 4. A break above 158.04 would signal that wave 5 is in progress. Only a decline below 153.66 clouds the picture.
EURCHF We mentioned last week that The rally sequence from 1.5448 appears to sport a first wave extension. Thus, 1.6171 is the top of wave 3 and the subsequent setback wave 4. A push through 1.6171 indicates that wave 5 has been in progress since 1.6058. Focus then shifts to the 161.8% fibo of 1.5847-1.5032 at 1.6348. The ensuing rally will complete a larger 3 wave advance from 1.4395 and the risk of a reversal would be high. The A and C legs of the advance from 1.4395 would be equal at 1.6484. 1.6058 is critical to the immediate bullish case. 1.6058 has held and 1.6171 has been exceeded thus focus has shifted to 1.6348.
EURGBP The EURGBP continues to slip. The pair is pips away from taking out 3 year support at .6540. A break below .6540 negates the triangle interpretation and suggests that a large flat is unfolding. In this instance, a measured objective and potential bottoming level comes in where the decline from .7107 equals the decline from .7254 to .6542. This is at .6395. If the triangle is able to hold (.6540), then the EURGBP may be forming a bottom now. The 1/16 high at .6605 is initial resistance.
