Euro Crosses Headed Lower
1. EURJPY
2. EURCHF
3. EURGBP
EURJPY
EURJPY rallied this past week to retest the double-top formed at the 4/20 high of 145.50. It failed to break, however, and fell to previous support at 144.96. It seems to have established a triple-top at the 145.69 barrier which is right at the upper Bollinger band, but confirmation would come at the break of 143.64--the 6/12 low. The ascending triangle and inverse head and shoulders formation on the daily charts suggests that the upside may be the path of least resistance. However as it stands, daily oscillators remain in bullish territory, but the low Average Trading Range suggests that high CCI and RSI values may be overstated. Thus we await a break in either direction to establish future direction in the EURJPY.
EURCHF
After making an inverse head and shoulders reversal pattern on the hourly chart, EURCHF broke the neckline resistance at 1.5496 to climb higher on the week. It currently rests above previous resistance at the confluence of a 38.2 fibo of 1.5853-1.5447 and a previous intraday high. It will continue to face stiff resistance, however, as it nears the intersection of the 50.0 fibo of 1.5821-1.5447 and the 6/8 intraday high at 1.5635. Daily charts further support the significance of these levels with the 100-day SMA also sitting at the same level. Oscillators currently show mixed signals, but we should expect somewhat of a retracement before EURCHF chases new highs.
EURGBP
EURGBP hangs in the balance as it teeters between the 50.0 and 61.8 fibonacci retracements of .6751-.6909. Though it seemingly broke the significant 61.8 level on 6/5, a subsequent tumble saw it crash through the downside. It has subsequently challenged previous resistance at .6830 on each of the past 6 trading days, but price has consistently closed above the key baseline of the 200-day SMA. Our oscillators suggest that a bearish trend is increasingly imminent, but a low Average Trading Range tells us that these signals may be slightly overstated. As a result, we will wait and see whether the currency pair can hold .6830 before predicting future direction.
Glossary of Terms
CCI(20) 20 day Commodity Channel Index
> 0 bullish
0 > bearish
> 100 extremely bullish
-100 > - extremely bearish
RSI(14) 14 day Relative Strength Index
> 50 bullish
50 > bearish
> 70 overbought
30 > - oversold
MACD ? - MACD slope (MACD MACD[1])
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
Mom(8) 8 day Momentum (shorter-term direction)
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
ATR(14) 14 day Average True Range (volatility)
Medium 75th percentile* > ATR(14) > 25th percentile*
High - > 75th percentile*
Low 25th percentile* >
ADX(14) 14 day Average Directional Index (directional strength)
> 30 strong
30 > - weak
*measured against past 3 months
