The EURGBP is approaching its 200 day SMA. A push above there should lead to a pullback. The EURCAD is nearing the top of a multi-month wedge. A breakout higher is expected eventually. Divergence with daily momentum studies warn of reversals in the EURAUD and EURNZD.
Euro / British Pound
Expect a push through .8843 in order to complete a small 5 wave advance from .8453. Such a move would run stops placed above the confluence of the June 5 high / 200 day SMA / line extended from the December 2008 and March highs. The EURGBP would then be at risk of a pullback prior to continuation of the advance.
Euro / Swiss Franc
Since March, the EURCHF has traded in a narrow 400 pip range. Price is in the middle of this range now. There is no directional bias until price breaks the range. The 200 day SMA has provided support in recent months and is doing so now. It is possible that a large triangle is developing from the October low. Triangles are typically continuation patterns so respect a drop below 1.5000.
Euro / Canadian Dollar
The series of lower lows and lower highs in the EURCAD since the December 2008 high takes the form of a wedge, which is bullish going forward. Breaking out of the wedge would expose the 200 day SMA near 1.6000. Price ideally remains above 1.5400. Short term support is at 1.5590.
Euro / Australian Dollar
The decline that began last October may be nearing an end. Divergence with daily momentum studies warn of a reversal. Of course, it is not recommended that one go long quite yet. Wait for a pattern such as a head and shoulders bottom or double bottom (which would require a rally through 1.7300) before committing to the long side.
Euro / New Zealand Dollar
Same deal in the EURNZD. “Divergence with daily momentum studies warn of a reversal.” Rallying through 2.1250 / channel resistance would warrant a long bias.
Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday). He is the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
Please send comments about this report to jsaettele@dailyfx.com
