-EURGBP drops below February high
-EURCHF support at 1.50
-EURCAD support line near 1.6250
-EURAUD tests low of multi-month range
-EURNZD channel support at 2.2100
Euro / British Pound
The drop below.9078 (February high) and Elliott channel support suggests that a larger decline is underway. Price is also testing a line extended from the 2/10 and 2/24 lows. This unorthodox line is not expected to hold. With 5 waves complete at .9807, a large correction back to at least .8192 (beginning of 4th wave territory) is probably underway. There should be an opportunity to enter short in a few weeks (wait for decline from .9507 to unfold and the subsequent correction).
Euro / Swiss Franc
For months, I’ve cited the 5 wave advance from 1.4296 to 1.5886 in the EURCHF as reason to be bullish. The larger advance has finally resumed and price is expected to eventually exceed 1.5886. Fibonacci support extends to 1.49 and the 55 day SMA at 1.50 reinforces support in the Fibonacci zone.
Euro / Canadian Dollar
The long term trend for the EURCAD remains up. A corrective decline (a-b-c) from 1.7522 is likely complete at 1.5633 and the long term objective is above 2.0564 (which is where a corrective decline began in 1995). Near term, there is potential support at the confluence of the 55 day SMA / unorthodox support line drawn off of the November, February and March lows.
Euro / Australian Dollar
The drop below 1.86 destroys the triangle pattern that I thought has been unfolding since October 2008. However, the EURAUD is still confined to the large range that has persisted since then. Until a break of support (1.8487), a continued range is possible.
Euro / New Zealand Dollar
The long term trend is considered up as long as price is above 2.2480. Remember, the long term objective is above 2.6171 (all-time high). The reason for this target is that a triangle unfolded from that point. Near term, the EURNZD has declined from the top of a parallel channel. The bottom of the channel is potential support and crosses 2.2077 today. The channel increases about 20 pips per day.
Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday, GBP on Thursday, AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
Please send comments about this report to jsaettele@dailyfx.com
