-EURGBP should trade above .9078 soon
-EURCAD extremely bullish above 1.5633
-EURAUD at center of multi-month range
Euro / British Pound
It is unclear whether or not the EURGBP has made a long term top as previously thought at .9807. The decline from that level is in 3 waves, which could be a completed A-B-C decline. The short term picture is clear though. Near term, the rally from .8634 is impulsive and price should trade above .9078 soon; there is potential resistance from the 61.8% of the decline from .9525 at .9175. In summary, the short term trend is up as long as price is above .8806.
Euro / Swiss Franc
If the advance from 1.4296 is an impulse, then the EURCHF should hold 1.4296 and begin a rally that eventually exceeds 1.5886. Coming under 1.4654 would not change the bullish implications from the 5 wave advance. In fact, a drop below there could complete the corrective decline from 1.5886. Still, the 55 day SMA (in red) has contained bulls so far in 2009. Until the slope of the 55 day SMA begins to turn, there is little confidence in the bullish count.
Euro / Canadian Dollar
The long term trend for the EURCAD remains up. Reviewing the long term picture…“from the 2001 low to the 2007 low, the EURCAD traced out 5 waves up and 3 waves down. Having already exceeded 1.6971, it is possible that a complex declining pattern of sorts is underway from 2.0564 (alternate). But, the preferred bullish count is intact as long as price is above 1.4818. Also, the pattern since the 1995 top has the look of an inverse head and shoulders continuation pattern (neckline broken last year).” Near term, a corrective decline (a-b-c) from 1.7522 may be complete at 1.5633. The 61.8% of the rally from 1.4818 has held on numerous occasions, which is supportive for bulls. The long term objective is above 2.0564.
Euro / Australian Dollar
The triangle that began in October 2008 may be complete in the EURAUD at 1.9010. The trend since late 2007 has been up in the EURAUD and since triangles are continuation patterns, the probability is high that the break will be to the upside.
Euro / New Zealand Dollar
The long term trend is considered up as long as price is above 2.2480. Near term, structure is bullish as long as price is above 2.3963. I am showing the monthly chart this week in order to illustrate the sideways consolidation that took place since the 1992 high. The sideways affair counts clearly as a triangle therefore the ultimate objective is above the triangle starting point of 2.6171.
Jamie Saettele publishes Daily Technicals every weekday morning (930 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), technical analysis of currency crosses throughout the week (EUR on Tuesday, JPY on Wednesday, GBP on Thursday, AUD on Friday), and the DFX Trend Index every day after the NY close. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
Please send comments about this report to jsaettele@dailyfx.com.
