Euro finally set for close above 20-Day SMA. Dollar/Yen breaks below 10-day SMA; Short @98.25. Cable still bearish despite potential up-day. Dollar/Swiss holding above 100-Day SMA; stops trailed for profit. Dollar/Cad fails to establish downside momentum. Australian Dollar well capped above 0.6500. New Zealand Dollar needs to break above 0.5095 for structural shift.
EUR/USD
| EUR/USD – The market has once again broken back above the 20-Day SMA on Wednesday and could finally be ready for a close above the indicator that has capped on a close basis since early January. This would be a bullish signal and likely open the door to a more significant corrective rally over the coming days towards next key topside resistance by 1.2905-95 (25/23Feb highs). A break back below Wednesday’s low at 1.2615 will now be required to shift focus back on the downside. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL. |
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USD/JPY
| USD/JPY – Short trade was triggered earlier in the day and the pair looks like it could be on the verge of a more significant decline over the coming days with stochastics rolling over and the market looking to close below the 10-Day SMA for the first time since January 27. Also seen weighing is the formation of a potential head & shoulders top on the hourly chart which would be confirmed on a break below 96.55, exposing a retest of the previous 2009 high/major double bottom neckline by 94.60. Position: SHORT @98.25 FOR A 96.55 OBJECTIVE, REVISED STOP @98.25. |
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GBP/USD
| GBP/USD – Price action has been constructive on Wednesday with the market attempting to put in the first bullish close 5 days. However, the overall structure remains grossly bearish and despite the up-day, we have still managed to put in a fresh daily lower low and lower high. A break back above 1.3905 would ultimately be required to take the focus off of 1.3500 and open a more sizeable corrective rally. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
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USD/CHF
| USD/CHF – The latest dips have once again been well supported in the 1.1400’s with the market bouncing back above 1.1500 to keep the prominent range trade intact. The 100-Day SMA was breached on Tuesday but was once again unable to close below the SMA. Fresh longs have been triggered by 1.1465 and we now target a push back towards the range highs over the coming sessions. Position: LONG @1.1465 FOR A 1.1850 OBJECTIVE, REVISED STOP @1.1490.
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